18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-7; -11.86pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Adam Scott -103 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 2
Two players with very good course histories and making their first starts of 2013. Both have been practising hard, at least harder in Scott's example as he is not renowned as the hardest worker outside tournaments, but it was Donald who had in the better form when they were last playing competitively. In his last two events of 2012, he was a wire-to-wire winner of the Dunlop Phoenix Tournamenet and led for the first three rounds of the DP World Tour Championship. Even in this event, they have very different recent histories. Since finishing 1st and 2nd in 2005/06, Scott hasn't finished either the 1st or the 2nd round inside the top-50 in any year, whereas Donald has finished the 1st round inside the top-15 in each of the last five years.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Chris Kirk -105 @ Bet365  WON by 5
Jacobson should be boosted by Snedeker's withdrawal from the WGC Match Play Championship next week - he takes his place in the field. And he should also be able to maintain his recent form - 7th last week - on this week's course where he finished inside the top-15 last year. Kirk has also been playing well recently, but missed cuts in both his previous visits to Riviera limit his chances of maintaining that form.

Ernie Els to beat Peter Hanson +120 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Surprised to see Els as a such a large underdog against Hanson who is making his course debut and is playing here purely because it is the week before the WGC Match Play Championship. Els is a former winner of this event and will be a strong opponent to Hanson who has never finished inside the top-10 in a regular PGA Tour event.

Ryan Moore to beat Jim Furyk -103 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 2
Furyk made his 2013 debut last week and finished 30th, so he may well perform better this week on a course on which he has a decent record, but still only has one top-10 finish in his last 14 previous attempts. I'd much rather back Moore in his 4th start of 2013, coming off a 4th place finish in the Phoenix Open two weeks ago and with finishes of 4th and 17th in the last two years here.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

John Senden to beat Seung-Yul Noh +110 @ Boyle Sports  LOST by 4
Senden is one of my 'go to' players for rd2. When starting the second round outside the top-60, he has improved his leaderboard position in that round in 27 of the last 28 occasions. Against a player who is making his course debut, Senden looks the more likely to feature this week despite his opening round.

Matt Kuchar to beat K.J. Choi -138 @ 5Dimes and BetVictor [available generally]  LOST by 3
Kuchar is already featuring in this event - he holds a one-shot lead over the rest of the field after day one. That is the culmination of very good performances this year - 9th, 5th and 16th in his three starts in 2013 - and a good record on this course. He may have the added pressure of being the 1st round leader, but in the three times that he has been in this position since 2010, he has always retained the lead after round 2. He didn't go on to win any of those events, but he still played well under the pre-weekend pressure.

Sergio Garcia to beat Charl Schwartzel -115 @ The Greek [available generally]  LOST by 6
Garcia is one shot back in 2nd place and once again, it appears largely predictable on the basis on recent form - 2nd and 17th in his two starts this year - and a good course history which includes 4th place last year. Schwartzel did finish 2nd last week, so is in good form, but that was his only Tour start of 2013 and this week represents his first event outside South Africa since November. With the long-haul flight from Johannesburg to Los Angeles at the start of the week, his form can be expected to dip this week.

Jim Furyk to beat Fredrik Jacobson -138 @ Bet365  LOST by 7
Last week's opener at Pebble Beach appears to have blown the cobwebs off Furyk's game. He followed his 30th place finish last week with 68 yesterday to finish the day inside the top-10. With a good record on this course and a good history of maintaining these strong starts for at least two more rounds, Furyk looks likely to feature on the leaderboard throughout the week.

Phil Mickelson to beat Keegan Bradley -110 @ Stan James  WON by 3
Furyk's record at Riviera pales into insignificance when compared with Mickelson's - in four of the last six years, he has been 1st after 72 holes. Admittedly, in two of those years he was tied with other players and then lost the playoff, but it is a very impressive course record. With Mickelson also holding a 7-0-0 h2h record over Bradley over the last six months, it is difficult to see how that run will be ended this week. 

Round 3 play (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Sergio Garcia +107 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 5
Two players that disappointed yesterday, but Kuch is the type of player who is more likely to bounce back today. He also dominates this matchup 9-4 over the last 12 months and that includes 13-6-1 over rd3 and rd4, so I don't see why he should be such a sizeable underdog against Garcia.

Round 4 play (4pts):

Josh Teater to beat John Merrick -125 @ Stan James  TIED
Opposing Merrick who lies 2nd in a very congested chasing group behind Bill Haas. In the eight times in the last two years that he has been within five shots of the lead at the start of the final round (and not leading), he has shot 77-76-72-67-70-77-76-72. Only once did he manage to improve his leaderboard position in the final round - and that was by a single position - whereas in four of the eight occasions, he dropped more than 20 places down the leaderboard from this situation. Teater is just one shot behind and not only ended 2012 with a top-5 finish, but he has already secured one this season - 2nd in the Farmers Insurance Open behind Tiger Woods.