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7-4; +7.94pts (system plays: 3-3-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Webb Simpson to beat Jason Day +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 5
Day's form in Majors this year is hard to ignore, but Simpson is playing the better golf at the moment and particularly early in events. Not only was he first round leader at the Bridgestone Invitational last week, but in his previous two starts in the U.S., he has been 4th and 3rd after rd1. That is enough to back him at plus-odds in this matchup against a player who has been suffering with a strained right-hand recently. Francesco Molinari to beat Boo Weekley -108 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib] TIED
The Italian is playing better than Weekly has a win in his last ten starts, but no other top-25 finishes. With a record of four cuts made in the last four years in this event, I'd make him a clear favourite against Weekley who hasn't qualified for this event since 2010 when he missed the cut. David Lynn to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -105 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Opposing Olesen who has missed seven of his last eight cuts - he finished 48th of 73 last week, but there was no cut. Lynn has had a stellar year on the PGA Tour and holds a 6-1-0 rd1 h2h lead over Olesen in the U.S. this year. It is a year since he finished 2nd in this event to Rory McIlroy; he has done enough on the PGA Tour this year to show that was not such a fluke. Round 2 plays (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Thomas Bjorn -134 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 13
Furyk beat Bjorn by five shots yesterday to end the day tied for the lead with Adam Scott. For a player who has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two weeks, this is not such a surprise. Given that Bjorn has finished wd-73rd in his last two starts and hasn't finished in the top-10 in any of his last 29 PGA Tour or WGC events, Furyk should be able to beat his Danish opponent without the need to still be in the lead after 36 holes as he has done on the last two occasions that he has been leading after rd1. Bill Haas to beat Graeme McDowell -139 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
GMac went on an amazing run from The Masters to the Open de France of playing eight times, winning three of those events and missing the cut in the rest. Now he is just not contending at all, finishing 58th, mc and then 40th in a field of 73. He is already a couple of shots behind Haas after rd1 and given that Haas has finised 1st, 9th, and 7th in his last three events in the U.S., I don't see him being a match for the American. Lee Westwood to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] WON by 1
Two players with good recent histories in this event, but I'll side with the player who has been in better form recently - that includes 3rd in the Open Championship whereas Bubba has finished in the top-20 in just one of his last nine starts - and looked in much better form yesterday when he ended the day in 3rd place and four shots ahead of his opponent. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Kirk tb Warren -146 (L); Gallacher tb Grace +117 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Robert Garrigus -160 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 4
I'll gladly take these odds to back Stricker against a player whose best finish in the last three months is 64th. Stricker has finished ahead of him in every common event in 2013 and in their last 25 common events, Stricker has finished ahead of his opponent 21 times. In terms of rd3 performances only over that period, Stricker leads Garrigus 14-3-0. So, I'll gladly take these odds on Stricker! Steve Stricker to beat Webb Simpson -120 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
This is another matchup that Stricker dominates: 9-2-1 over the last 12 months and 6-2-0 in rd3 over the same period. Simpson is certainly in better form that Garrigus, but he has broken 70 in rd3 just once since the Tour left the West Coast in February and he has just one top-10 finish in his last eight starts. Ian Poulter to beat Marc Warren -163 @ SkyBet, Bet365 and Coral [available generally] LOST by 9
Surprised to see Warren shoot a low score yesterday - he had only previously played in one event in the U.S. - the 2012 U.S. Open. It is a good pairing for him to be partnered with Poulter, but in their last 35 common events, he has shot the lower score in rd3 just three times and never in rd4. That is why he ranks outside the top-100 in the World Rankings and Poults in the top-20. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Snedeker tb English -138 (W); Hoffman tb Fraser -120 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Roberto Castro to beat Marc Warren +100 @ Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Boyle Sports and Coral [available generally] LOST by 1
Warren surprised again yesterday, but I will oppose him again as he starts the final round in 12th place in just his third Major Championship - best finish of 65th in his two previous Majors. Castro has been in good form recently - 2nd in the AT&T National and 6th in the Canadian Open two weeks ago - so I'll back him to cope with the Major Sunday pressure better. Webb Simpson to beat Charley Hoffman -125 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 3
Hoffman ranks 172nd on the PGA Tour in Final Round Scoring Average this year, so it is not surprising that Simpson is a perfect 6-0-0 h2h in rd4 against him in 2013. With a best finish of 27th in Major Championships, I don't see him performing much better in this final round and defeating the 2012 U.S. Open champion. David Toms to beat Ryo Ishikawa -120 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib] WON by 5
Another matchup featuring a Major Champion and a player who has struggled in Majors. It may be over a decade since Toms won this event, but he has a top-5 finish in the Majors in each of the last two seasons. Ishikawa has a best finish of 20th in 16 Majors and has missed the cut in five of his last seven. In terms of form, Toms is in much better form than his opponent: he finished 16th last week whereas Ishikawa has played in each of the last seven weeks and reached the final round just once. Toms' game should clearly hold up better under Sunday Major presure. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Justin Rose to beat Graeme McDowell -105 (L); Rose tb Cabrera-Bello -163 (L)] |
