|
9-6; +5.72pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts): Matt Every to beat Ted Potter -155 @ The Greek [also available @ Carib and WSEX] LOST by 3
Two players who start the 3rd round in 3rd place, but I don't see Potter staying there. In his 26 previous PGA Tour starts, he has recorded just one top-10 finish, albeit a win from well off the pace (64-64 over the weekend). Every comes into this event off the back of a top-10 finish and has a decent record in this event (Potter missed the cut by 10 shots on his debut last year). Lee Westwood to beat Hunter Mahan -105 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1
Mahan leads the event after the first round and this will be the ninth time that he has done so in his career - on none of the previous occasions did he go on to win the event and only once did he manage to stay in 1st place after the 2nd round. Westwood showed good form in Dubai last week and currently sits inside the top-10 after the 1st round, so would be a good opponent. His h2h record against Mahan also reads 8-3-1 in their last 12 common events, so it is clear who the dominant player is in this matchup. Ben Kohles to beat Scott Brown -150 @ Paddy Power LOST by 4
Opposing Brown. He played in 23 PGA Tour events from January to September last year, missing the cut 19 times, but of the four cuts that he made, three of those were top-10 finishes. This week he makes his season debut after failing to secure his Tour Card via Q-School where he finished 156th. Kohles is a much more promising player who won back-to-back titles on the Web.com Tour last year and so justifies the short price. Kevin Stadler to beat Steve Marino -111 @ Bet365 [available generally] WON by 5
At 145th on the leaderboard, yesterday was Marino's 2nd-worst rd1 performance in his Tour career. On the other occasion, he followed his 84 with a 78 and missed the cut in the 2012 U.S. Open. It is hard to see him salvaging this position with just 60 players making the cut, so I'll back Stadler whose 69 around Pebble Beach puts him inside the top-20 on the leaderboard and continues his good run of form in this event. Brian Stuard to beat Arjun Atwal -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 4
With finishes of 5th, 10th and 39th in his three starts this season, Stuard looks in good enough form to maintain his current top-20 position. Making his season debut and with finishes of mc, wd and mc in the last three years here, Atwal looks much less likely to maintain his position alongside Stuard on the leaderboard. Round 3 plays (4pts unless stated): Webb Simpson to beat Robert Garrigus +100 @ Stan James [also available @ Bet365] WON by 1
I'll take these odds on the World #17 who has two top-20 finishes in three starts this year. Garrigus has also been playing well this year, but it is clear from the GIR stats whose ball-striking has been better this week - Simpson ranks 15th, Garrigus 95th. Chez Reavie to beat Nick O'Hern +110 @ Paddy Power WON by 8
Opposing O'Hern who starts the 3rd round inside the top-10. This will be the 7th time that he has done so on the PGA Tour in the last two years; on none of the previous occasions did he manage to improve his leaderboard position by the end of the 3rd round. Reavie dominantes this matchup 11-4 over the past 12 months and while he is behind O'Hern at the moment, it should get closer over the weekend. Retief Goosen to beat Fredrik Jacobson +102 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3
Also not so sure about Jacobson who lies 3rd after two rounds. In the 15 times that he has been in the top-3 with 36 holes to play over the last 10 years, he has broken 70 in the next round just once. Goosen's game has been improving and now he sits 11th on the leaderboard with the Monterrey Peninsula course to play today. Sean O'Hair to beat Nick O'Hern -130 @ WSEX [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] [2pts] WON by 6
Opposing O'Hern with O'Hair as well who has shown a return to form this week in an event in which he has done well in recent years - top-35 in each of the last four years as well as 12th in the 2010 U.S. Open around Pebble Beach. Brendon De Jonge to beat Jimmy Walker +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and Boyle Sports] [2pts] LOST by 6
Backing De Jonge to build on his current lead over Walker in this event. The South African is in very good form with cuts made in all four starts this year, including 15th and 6th in the last two weeks, and has continued his good play this week, ranking 2nd in 'All-Around Ranking' behind John Merrick (Walker is 96th). Round 4 plays (2pts): Robert Garrigus to beat Retief Goosen -118 @ Expekt [available generally] LOST by 3
Both players in 6th place after 54 holes and while Goosen continues to improve while he returns to full health, it has been 11 months since he last started the 4th round of an event in the top-20 - he shot 75 on that occasion (Transitions Championship). For Garrigus, it has been a reasonably regular occurance and with top-20 finishes in all his three starts this year (and in this event last year), he looks the more likely to challenge for the lead from this position. Jimmy Walker to beat James Driscoll -134 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and WSEX] WON by 3
Another two players in 6th place, but with contrasting form. Driscoll hasn't managed a top-50 so far in his three previous starts this year, whereas Walker has finished 26th, 23rd, 4th and 54th in his four starts in 2013. With Walker also recording top-10 finishes in this event in both of the last two years and holding a 16-4 h2h record against his opponent over their last 20 common starts, there is enough confidence in this play to take the [-1/2 shot] at 5Dimes rather than the -165 with ties void. Jason Day to beat Retief Goosen -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and WSEX] WON by 2
Also opposing Goosen with Day who has been in form recently - a top-10 in the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago - and has shown particularly good form this week - he leads this event in greens in regulation. Luke Guthrie to beat Sean O'Hair +100 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and WSEX] LOST by 2
Both players in 11th place in this matchup, but this has become a rare occurence for O'Hair. He has just one top-10 finish in the last 12 months and in the four times that he has started the final round in the top-20 over the past year, every time he has finished that round lower down the leaderboard. Little wonder that Guthrie has finished ahead of him in all five of their common events to date. Chris Kirk to beat James Hahn -125 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and WSEX] WON by 4
A week ago Hahn was making the headlines for his 'Gangnam style' celebration on the 16th hole, now he is making them for being the joint leader of this event. But the simple fact is that he has never a led a PGA Tour event heading into the final round - his best position at the start of final round on this Tour has been 19th and that was after he had been leading after two rounds of the Humana Challenge and then dropped 18 places. Kirk lies just one shot back in 3rd place, but he has proven that he can perform under final round pressure on the PGA Tour ... in the eight times over the last two years that he has started the final round in the top-10, his final round scores have been: 70-67-69-68-67-68-68-66. |
