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9-4; +13.28pts Round 1 play (4pts): Nick Watney to beat Martin Kaymer -138 @ Paddy Power [also available @ William Hill] WON by 9
Kaymer may have two top-10 finishes under his belt from the last two weeks in the Middle East, but he was far from impressing even when he took the 36-hole lead last week. And now he plays on a course on which he missed the cut by seven shots on his sole previous visit. Watney is in equally good form, finishing 13th and 4th in his two starts this year, and he does have a good record in this event, including 5th last time he was here in 2011. Round 2 plays (2pts): Gary Woodland to beat Stewart Cink -145 @ WSEX [available generally] WON by 3
Cink's mini-recovery appears to be over. He finished 10th in the Humana Challenge, but then missed the cut last week and is outside the cut-line this week after the 1st round. It appears unlikely that he will improve in rd2 as this is not an event in which he has played well recently. In his four starts here since 2007, he has finished 69th, mc, mc and last year he withdrew after an opening 83. Woodland has made the cut in all three previous visits, including a 5th place finish two years ago, and he ranked 3rd in greens in regulation yesterday, so this is clearly a course that continues to suit his game. Nick Watney to beat Robert Garrigus -150 @ Paddy Power LOST by 5
Backing Watney again as his game looked very impressive yesterday. It continued his run of fine form recently - 13th and 4th in two starts this year - and on this course - finishes of 12, 24th and 5th in his last three visits. That contrasts sharply with Garrigus who has missed the cut in each of his last three visits to Scottsdale. Bill Haas to beat Brian Gay -110 @ William Hill WON by 2
Two players in the top-10 after the 1st round, but it is Haas who dominates this matchup, particularly in the early rounds where he has a 12-5-1 h2h record against Gay in rds 1 and 2 over the last 12 months. Ryan Moore to beat D.A. Points -143 @ Bet365 WON by 8
That dominance is even stronger in this matchup: Moore leads Points 25-7-4 in rds 1 and 2 over the last 12 months and the last time that he finished a tournament behind Points was back in May 2012 when Points finished 2nd and Moore 5th. Brandt Snedeker to beat Rickie Fowler -138 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill] WON by 5
It must have been difficult for Fowler to concentrate on the back nine yesterday, playing in the same group as Mickelson, and I doubt that it will be any less of a pressure-pot today. Maybe there was even a hangover from the effort that he put into recovering from his opening 75 last week, ending day 1 in last place (154th) and finishing day 4 in 6th place. Either way, I'd much rather back a player who has finished in the top-3 of two of three starts this year and fully deserves his place in the top-10 of the World Rankings on the basis of his form in the last five months. Round 3 plays (4pts unless stated): Jimmy Walker to beat Russell Henley +110 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Both players more than ten shots off the lead, so individual motivation in this situation is relevant. Walker was in this position three weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii and shot 68-64 over the weekend to finish 26th; the time before that was in the Frys.com Open in October when he shot 67-62 over the weekend finished 4th. Henley has been in this position only twice previously - shooting 79 in the 3rd round of the BMW Charity Pro-Am and missing the cut and shotting 71-75 and dropping from 15th to 42nd in the U.S. Open. With finishes of 26th, 23rd and 4th in his three starts this season, Walker is playing well enough to repeat his recent bouncebacks from such a position. Lucas Glover to beat George McNeill +115 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
A similar issue here. Both players are in 60th place, twelve shots off the lead. But this is a play primarily against McNeill - since the start of the 2011 season, he has started the 3rd round more than 10 shots off the lead on 11 occasions on the PGA Tour ... not once did he finish the 3rd round closer to the lead than at the start of the day. I'll take these odds to oppose a player out of contention. Ryan Palmer to beat Scott Piercy +110 @ Paddy Power LOST by 2
Exactly the same in this matchup - both players are more than ten shots off the lead. Whereas Palmer has shot par or better in rd3 every time he has been more than ten shots off the lead since 2011 on the PGA Tour and improved his distance to the leader in more than half of those occasions, Piercy hasn't done so in any of the occasions that he has started the 3rd round more than ten shots off the lead. Bryce Molder to beat Brendan Steele -116 @ Bet365 [2pts] LOST by 2
A different angle here. Molder has performed better than Steele in most categories this week - hit more fairways, hit more greens and scrambled better than Steele - so I'd be more confident that he can maintain his current top-20 position than Steele. And his previous history when starting the weekend in the top-20 is also supportive: in the last eight occasions that he has started the weekend in the top-20, his 3rd round scores has been 64-68-67-65-68-67-75-68. Jeff Maggert to beat Ted Potter -120 @ WSEX [also available @ Carib] [2pts] LOST by 3
Another smaller play on two players inside the top-20. Maggert dominates this h2h matchup 12-5-2, plus he has had three top-10 finishes on this course; Potter has played it once previously and finished 70th. Round 4 plays (2pts): Matt Every to beat Ted Potter -130 @ The Greek [also available @ Carib] WON by 4
Opposing Potter again, but with a better opponent. Every has been playing very well this week, ranking 18th in driving distance, 5th in driving accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation - that puts him top of the 'Ball Striking' category so far this week - whereas Potter ranks outside the top-20 in all three categories. Already with a top-10 finish in this event, I think Every is the more likely player to consolidate their current 12th place position. Hunter Mahan to beat Gary Woodland -120 @ Stan James [also available @ BetVictor and Boyle Sports] WON by 1
A top-30 player in the World Rankings and a player who has recently won in this course (2010) or a player who ranks 148 places lower in those World Rankings? A player who holds a 12-1-1 h2h advantage over his opponent since the start of last season or a player who starts the final round inside the top-10 for the first time in 17 months? A pretty obvious pick at these odds. |
