|
6-9; -24.20pts Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated): Luke Donald to beat Sergio Garcia +102 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 4
I'll back Donald at these odds. He is in good form having finished 3rd last time out at Harbour Town, has finished in the top-25 in all his starts on the PGA Tour his year (something that Sergio hasn't done) and started quickly by being inside the top-25 in all those events after rd1 (something that Sergio has achieved in only two of five starts starts on the PGA Tour this year). And with finishes of 4th and 6th in the last two years here, I'd expect Donald to have another good week at Sawgrass. Dustin Johnson to beat Billy Horschel -110 @ BetVictor [available generally] [2pts] WON by 2
It would be hard not to notice Horschel's form at the moment - 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 1st in his last four starts - but it must also be remembered that he had recorded just once top-10 finish on the PGA Tour since 2011 until this purple patch of form. It must also be remembered that this is the Players Championship, in which he has never previously played. In fact, he has played in just one Major Championship - the 2006 U.S. Open where he missed the cut. I think that win will be difficult to follow and moreso in an event like this. Johnson has finished 12th, 4th and 13th in his last three starts and has made the cut in three of four attempts here. Round 2 plays (4pts): Dustin Johnson to beat Billy Horschel -119 @ Pinnacle [available generally] VOID (Johnson dns)
Johnson wasn't at his best yesterday, but he still beat Horschel who, as expected, struggled on his debut. Down in 123rd place and playing in the windier afternoon conditions, I expect Horschel to be very attacking in this round and that rarely leads to success on this course. Brendon De Jonge to beat Jeff Overton -110 @ BetVictor [also available @ Stan James] WON by 1
De Jonge had a poor day on the greens yesterday. He ranked 6th in dirving accuracy and 14th in greens in regulation, but outside the top-100 for putting average and putts per round. He did finish inside the top-15 here last year, so it was not a rookie's inexperience on the greens that caused him problems yesterday. Given his ball-striking, he should be able to bounceback and maintain his h2h dominance over Overton: 16-6-4 in rd2 over the last 12 months. Fredrik Jacobson to beat Charles Howell -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Jacobson is the opposite type of player - he is at his best on or around the green. However, he will still be disappointed to be 68th after day one - he has made four of his last five cuts here including a top-10 finish in 2010 and he has finished in the top-25 in his last seven tournaments. Howell has managed that twice in his last seven tournaments and has a very poor record at Sawgrass: a best-finish of 32nd over a decade ago and he has missed his last five cuts here. It therefore appears strange that they are priced at pick'em. Fredrik Jacobson to beat Peter Hanson +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Not sure what to make of Hanson's round yesterday. He had a quadruple-bogey, a double-bogey, an eagle and seven birdies. He finished his round five-under-par for his last five holes to finish at -2 and in 34th place. All I can say is that such a finish to rescue his round tends to leave a player drained of energy on the following day. I'll oppose him with Jacobson who will be playing in the easier morning conditions. Robert Garrigus to beat Brian Gay -145 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Gay is on a poor run of form - he hasn't broken 70 in his last 18 rounds and just once in his last 24 rounds. And it is not just recently, when compared to Garrigus, he has finished ahead of Garrigus just three times in their last 15 common events. A short price, but at least Garrigus was playing in the tougher afternoon conditions yesterday. Round 3 plays (4pts): Chris Kirk to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 2
Easy to oppose Kelly in this matchup: Kirk leads him 17-4-0 h2h over the last 12 months. With just one top-20 finish in 13 starts this year, I can't see him hanging on to his current top-20 position whereas Kirk has been much more consistent, missing just one cut in 12 starts this year. Steve Stricker to beat Jason Dufner -120 @ Paddy Power TIED
A similar dominance in this matchup: Dufner has finished ahead of Stricker just once in their last ten common events. Stricker's restricted schedule has seen him play well this year and currently inside the top-15, he looks set to continue reaping the rewards from that regime change. Chris Kirk to beat Martin Laird -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
And another dominant matchup in terms of the head-to-heads: in the last 10 months, Laird has finished ahead of Kirk just once. He did win the Texas Open five weeks ago, but he had missed the cut the week before and missed the cut in both starts since that win. He has clearly made the cut this week, but his game is clearly unreliable so I'll oppose him with Kirk at these underdog odds. Kevin Streelman to beat Peter Hanson -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Hanson was more consistent yesterday, but he still ranks outside the top-100 this week for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation ... that lack of ball-striking does not bode well for the weekend. Streelman lies 4th in greens in regulation this week and so warrants his top-20 position, a position that he secured on this course two years ago and a position that he was in until the final round last year. With a win in March and finishes of 3rd and 6th in his last two starts, he is certainly playing well enough to continue his good form on this course. Tiger Woods to beat Sergio Garcia -163 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 1
Short odds, but one stat clinches it for me: in the last 10 times that these have been paired together, Sergio has never shot the lower score (Tiger on 7 occasions and 3 ties). I'll never forget Medinah and I'm it is hard for Sergio to not do the same until he wins a Major. Round 4 plays (4pts): Adam Scott to beat Webb Simpson -124 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
A former winner of this event and a winner of the Masters last time out or a player whose best finish on this course in 69th from four attempts? Looks straightforward to me and is only confirmed by the quality of Scott's play from tee-to-green this week - he should be higher than his current 26th position. Rory McIlroy to beat Daniel Summerhays -175 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally] WON by 2
McIlroy has slid down the leaderboard, but is just six shots off the lead so it not completely out of contention. I'll certainly back him not to lose to Summerhays more than once in every three rounds given that his opponent has secured just one top-25 position in 13 starts this year. Sergio Garcia to beat David Lingmerth -200 @ BetVictor [available generally] LOST by 4
Partnered with Sergio in the final group of the Players Championship and with Tiger in the group in front, this is an intimidating situation for Lingmerth. He didn't cope well when in the one time in this position on the Web,com Tour (2012 Price Cutter Charity Championship) and with just two cuts made (best-finish: 50th) in his last 10 starts, I can't see Lingmerth staying in this company today. Chris Kirk to beat Sang-Moon Bae -150 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365 and Stan James] LOST by 4
Kirk's triple-bogey at the last was very costly for me yesterday, but I'll back him to beat Bae whom he has finished ahead in 12 of 16 events in the last 12 months. David Lynn to beat Jeff Maggert -140 @ 5Dimes [available generally] LOST by 6
I didn't expect Lynn to be such a success on the PGA Tour and he is again in the top-10. It is very much a surprise that Maggert is in the top-10 as his best finish this year in ten starts is 46th. The confidence of Lynn should carry him today; I just can't see Maggert turning back the clock in the final round of the Players Championship. |
