18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-3; +3.92pts  (system plays: 3-3-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Zach Johnson to beat Hideki Matsuyama -120 @ 5Dimes  VOID (Matsuyama dns)
Two players in great form, but whereas Matsuyama can count just two top-10 finishes in the last three months (albeit no finish lower than 21st), Johnson has recorded top-8 finishes in seven of eight starts over that period. They have all been in PGA Tour or WGC or Major events unlike Matsuyama. The other factor in Johnson's favour is that he is not making his course debut - he played here in 2008 and was the 1st round leader, finishing Sunday still inside the top-10.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Vijay Singh to beat Mike Weir -138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
Short odds, but still value to back a player in good form - he finished 2nd last week - and is inside the top-20 after round 1 against a player who has been struggling with his game for some time and is down in 98th place after the opening round. Singh is 18-7-3 h2h against Weir in the 1st and 2nd rounds this year, so he certainly warrants these odds.

Brian Davis to beat Brendon Todd -105 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
Two players in comparable form, but ranking 9th in driving accuracy and 6th in greens in regulation, it is clear that he could have gone lower yesterday. He is a regular in this event unlike Todd and I will back to go lower today.

Charles Howell to beat Russell Henley -135 @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 3
Howell is another regular at TPC Summerlin with six top-20 finishes and he is playing much better than Henley who has failed to match his early season form and consistency. Given that and the fact that Howell ranked higher in the ball-striking categories yesterday than Henley, these seem fair odds to oppose a player who is some way from the top of his game.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Singh tb Stanley -116 (W); De Jonge tb Moore -116 (L)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Freddie Jacobson to beat Seung-Yul Noh +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 1

Brian Davis to beat Morgan Hoffmann +110 @ Paddy Power, ToteSport and BetFred [available generally]  TIED

Kevin Stadler to beat Carl Pettersson -110 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  TIED

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Davis tb Steele -105 (W); Henry tb Bohn +100 (L)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Ryan Moore to beat Ryo Ishikawa -112 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  LOST by 3
Opposing Ishikawa whose play this week does not reflect his current top-5 position: in terms of ball-striking, he ranks 56th (of 71) in greens in regulation, and in terms in on-the-green play, he ranks 56th in SGP and 63rd in Putts per GIR. Very easy to oppose him with a local player and the defending champion.

Charles Howell to beat Charley Hoffman +110 @ SkyBet, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes  [available generally]  LOST by 1
Two players ten shots further back in 15th. But have had top-10 finishes in this event (Howell three; Hoffman two), but Howell's recent form is certainly better than that of Hoffman and, more importantly, in terms of final round performance, there is a hug gap between these two players: Howell ranked inside the top-50 in Final Round Scoring Average on the 2013 PGA Tour season; Hoffman ranks 175th of 180.

Jeff Overton to beat Jason Bohn +100 @ Sportingbet and BetFred [available generally]  LOST by 4
Back to two players inside the top-5. Bohn has been here before: in 2009 he shot 71 on Sunday to drop from 4th to 14th and last year he shot 70 to drop from 6th to 8th. This is only the fifth time in the last three years that he has started the final round inside the top-10, so there should be some contention rust and that should enable Overton to maintain his dominance of this matchup: he leads Bohn 14-6 in 2013 and 30-12 since the start of 2012.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Todd tb Svoboda +104 (W); Hadley tb Bohn -125 (L)]