18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-5; -6.62pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Pat Perez to beat Chris Kirk -105 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Again being cautious because of the winds and the fact that this is the first start of the year for most of this field. PP has been a regular at Waialae since 2002 and in those eleven visits, he has secured five top-20 finishes so this is clearly a venue that suits his game. The other issue is his h2h record against Kirk - last year he shot the lower 1st round in 13 of 18 common events. He may not be as successful over the weekend, but he still has the ability to be competitive when the pressure is off.

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 plays (2pts unless stated):

Ryan Palmer to beat John Senden +100 @ BetVictor [also available @ Stan James] [4pts]  LOST by 7
A former winner here in 2010, Palmer closed with two birdies yesterday and I expect him to carry that over to the third round. It is something that he did well last year, converting 10 of his 16 cuts made last year in top-25 finishes. The key to that was his 3rd round scoring in which he ranked 4th on the PGA Tour last year. He should beat Senden who has a best finish of 20th in nine previous visits to Waialae, largely because of his difficulties on these greens - in his previous visits, he has never ranked inside the top-50 for putts per GIR or putts per round, and nor is he doing so this week.

Ryan Palmer to beat Tommy Gainey +100 @ Boyle Sports  LOST by 8
Gainey has a best finish of 55th in four previous visits, so it is a little surprising that he is as high as 22nd after the first two rounds. He did play well to finish 6th on Tuesday, but that was on a very different course. Waialae is not the type of course on which he should prosper and, given that he ranks 107th (of 144) in greens in regulation this week, it is hard to see how he will improve his position over the weekend.

Pat Perez to beat Chris Kirk -110 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [available generally]  WON by 1
A repeat of the first round matchup. Both played well in the second round, but it is always difficult to follow up the low round of the day - Kirk shot 62 yesterday and finished the day inside the top-5 after 36 holes. This was something that he managed on two occasions last year: in the Humana Challenge he shot 74-72 over the weekend and finished 42nd; in the Deutsche Bank Championship he shot 75-72 over the weekend and finished 35th. That doesn't augur well for today's round for Kirk who despite his 62 yesterday, only hit 11 of 18 greens in regulation; Perez has been much more solid this week, ranking 4th in greens in regulation which verifies his 8th place position on the leaderboard.

David Hearn to beat Morgan Hoffmann +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Surprised to see Hoffman as the clear favourite in this matchup. He may have played well in the last two months of the 2012 Web.com season, but he has been struggling this week - he ranks 117th in greens in regulation and even when he hit the greens his average distance to the hole was over 44 feet in rd2. Hearn was inside the top-10 after all four rounds last year and is repeating that form this week; he should beat the PGA Tour rookie in this event, at least.

Russell Henley to beat Scott Langley -110 @ Stan James [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 2
A matchup between the two rookies who have dominated the leaderboard so far this week. But whereas Langley has a best finish of 24th in eleven PGA and Web.com Tour events, Henley already has a top-20 finish in a Major (2010 U.S. Open) and finished the 2012 Web.com Tour season with finishes of 1st, 3rd, 1st and 6th to finish the season 3rd on the Money list. Add in the fact that in the first of those victories, he was leading after 36 holes (as this week) and then shot 65-70 to win wire-to-wire, and it is clear that he has the temperament to lead from the front. Given their histories, I'd expect Henley to have the much better season, as well as the better weekend this week.

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Scott Piercy to beat John Huh -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
Expected shorter odds on Piercy. He did shoot 72 yesterday to drop from 2nd to 14th, but he is too good a player not to bounce back from it. He is on a run of five straight top-15 finishes, has three top-15 finishes in five starts in Hawaii, has finished ahead of Huh in seven of their last ten common events, and has shot the lower final round in eight of their last nine common events. That looks rather one-sided to me!

Matt Jones to beat Danny Lee -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Boyle Sports]  LOST by 1
Opposing Danny Lee rather than backing Matt Jones. He starts the final round in 6th position and this is something that he has never achieved in his previous 43 starts on the PGA Tour. Given also that his best-ever finish on this Tour was 7th (2009 AT&T National), he has all the pressure of inexperience of being in contention on a PGA Tour Sunday and that normally doesn't lead to low scores.

Scott Piercy to beat Harrisn English -110 @ BetVictor  LOST by 2
Another with inexperience in terms of PGA Tour final round contention. Three times English has been in the top-15 at the start of the final round on the PGA Tour; on all three occasions he failed to break par in that round. It is for good reason that Piercy, at #40, ranks 100 places higher than English in the World Rankings.