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5-2; +5.96pts (system plays: 3-1-0) Round 1 plays (2pts): Bob Estes to beat Brian Gay -105 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Two former winners of this event (though Estes can add a couple of other top-3 finishes which Gay cannot), but it is Estes who looks more likely to challenge for this title again. Since winning the Humana Challenge in January, Gay has finished ahead of Estes in just one event and is currently on a run of mc-mc-wd-wd, including his withdrawal halfway through the 2nd round of the U.S. Open qualifier on Monday. Chez Reavie to beat Henrik Norlander -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
Norlander will be glad for getting the final group today as the last two weeks have seen him travel from the Crowne Plaza Invitational (where he played on the Sunday, finishing 73rd) to his home country, Sweden, to play in the Nordea Masters where he again reached the final round, finishing 11th, and now he back across the Atlantic to play in this event. With such a poor 1st round scoring average (he has broken 70 just once in 14 starts this year with a best 1st round placing of 50th), it is hard to see how he will improve it today with that travel itinery. Reavie is coming off a couple of good tournaments in Texas and should win this 1st round matchup. [unofficial rd1 system play: Maggert tb Kokrak -110 (W)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Brandt Snedeker to beat Dustin Johnson -111 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 3
Opposing the defending champion in rd2. He did play well yesterday and ended the day just one shot behind the leaders, but he has never been good from this position. In the six positions that he has started rd2 just one shot out of the lead, he has always ended the day at least five shots back and outside the top-10, the last time being the Masters Tournament when he shot 67-76-74-70. Last he won from off the pace (still five shots off the pace with two rounds to play) so in this position I'll back his opponent who has won twice already this year and finished ahead of Johnson in four of six common events this year. Bud Cauley to beat Roberto Castro +101 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1
Cauley had a poor day yesterday, but his record when outside the cut line is good - he averages less than 70 in the 2nd round when outside the top-70. Having also finished ahead of Castro in five of their last seven starts and not playing next week, he looks likely to bounce back today. Round 3 play (2pts): Martin Flores to beat Camilo Villegas +120 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 1
Good odds to back a player who has finished ahead of his opponent in each of their last five common events. He also ranks inside the top-5 this week for greens in regulation so his game is still in much better shape than that of Villegas who ranks more than 30 places lower in that category. Round 4 plays (4pts): Scott Stallings to beat Harris English -128 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 1 Brandt Jobe to beat Paul Haley -150 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 2 [unofficial rd4 system plays: Reed tb Meierdierks -163 (W); Harrington tb Meierdierks -163 (W); Johnson tb Hicks -175 (L)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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