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8-4; +10.66pts Round 1 play (4pts): Jason Dufner to beat Ryan Moore -124 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 7
Leader at the cut last year and a top-30 finisher in each of the last four years here, Dufner looks set for another very good week this week. Moore, by contrast, can count just one top-25 finish in six starts in 2013 and has finished mdf-44th-mc in the last three years here. Round 2 plays (2pts): Nick Watney to beat Scott Stallings -157 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX] WON by 4 John Senden to beat Ryan Palmer -120 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James] LOST by 5 Jim Furyk to beat K.J. Choi -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] LOST by 2 Lucas Glover to beat Rory Sabbatini -141 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 3 Sergio Garcia to beat Webb Simpson -119 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 2 Round 3 play (4pts): Justin Leonard to beat Marc Leishman +110 @ Paddy Power and BetVictor [available generally] WON by 8
I'll take this price for Leonard. Leishman has played this course three times in the last four years previously with a best-finish of 44th; Leonard has finished in the top-30 in each fo the three times that he has played this course in the last four years. And while they are at opposite ends of their careers, Leonard has finished ahead of Leishman in three of their last four common events this year. Round 4 play (2pts): Jason Dufner to beat Nick Watney -125 @ Paddy Power WON by 3 Bryce Molder to beat Harris English -125 @ Stan James LOST by 6 Jim Furyk to beat George Coetzee -129 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3 Greg Chalmers to beat George Coetzee +110 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Paddy Power] WON by 4 Ben Kohles to beat Tag Ridings -120 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 2 |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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