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4-5; -4.03pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Charl Schwartzel +120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Both players in good form - both have finished in the top-40 in every event so far in 2013 with Schwartzel having the lower average finishing position, but Kuchar with the win in the WGC World Matchplay Championship. But the difference comes in terms in course form - Schwartzel has none, whereas Kuchar had a top-15 finish last year. That makes it strange that Kuchar is such an underdog, particularly as he also has such extensive experience of playing (and playing well) in Texas. Ken Duke to beat James Hahn -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
The rookie Hahn has struggled since the Tour left the West Coast. He has played in each of the last five weeks, missing the cut four times and finishing 56th last week. I'll back the more experienced and better-rested Duke who finished 8th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago. Ben Curtis to beat Brendan Steele -110 @ BetVictor [also available @ Stan James] LOST by 2
A matchup between the winners of the last two Texas Opens. I'll back Curtis as the better player who finished 21st in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, though. Steele has made seven of eights cuts this year, but he has been well off the pace in all but one event, breaking 70 just three times in 18 rounds since that top-10 in Phoenix. Ryan Palmer to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -105 @ Bet365 WON by 4
A Texas Open veteran against a Texas rookie. Palmer has played in this event every year since 2004 and the three years of this course include a top-10 finish in 2010 and a top-5 position at the cut last year. He has already had a couple of top-10 finishes this year and last week was his first missed cut since the Tour left the West Coast. GFC has certainly had the better finishing positions this year, but he has never played in Texas previously, let alone on this course, and is playing here as he prepares for his second appearance in the Masters. To me, that points to a stronger week from the player who was born, went to university and still resides in Texas. Round 2 plays (2pts): Billy Horschel to beat Jason Kokrak -148 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
Horschel has continued his good form from last week (2nd in the Houston Open) with an opening 68 which sees him in 3rd place at the start of the 2nd round. He should have enough to easily beat Kokrak who is outside the cut line and has reached the final round just once in his last seven starts. Billy Horschel to beat Padraig Harrington -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] WON by 5
I'll also back Horschel against Harrington who has been showing some better form recently (6th in the Malaysian Open), but is still far from his best. Making his debut on this course, this is a warm-up for next week so it was rather a surprise that he finished day one alongside Horschel in 3rd place. Brian Davis to beat Martin Flores -120 @ Stan James TIED
Davis is another who has carried over his form from last week (6th in the Houston Open) with a top-10 position after day one of the Texas Open. He did finish 5th on his last visit to this course, so there is hope that he will continue his form for at least one more round. Given that Flores ranked 95th in driving distance, 114th in driving accuracy and 136th in greens in regulation yesterday, I suspect that his game is not strong enough to shoot a low score on day two. Jordan Spieth to beat Brendan Steele -155 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
With four top-10 finishes in his last five starts, Spieth is certainly playing well enough to shoot a low score on day two. He finished the first day ahead of out-of-form course-specialist Steele who extended his run of breaking 70 to just three times in 19 rounds since his top-10 finish in Phoenix. Jim Furyk to beat Brendon De Jonge -138 @ Paddy Power LOST by 1
Another top-10 position for Furyk who continues his steady run of form this year (no missed cuts), but for De Jonge fatigue must surely be a factor. Since he opened the season at the Sony Open in Hawaii, the only week that he has not played was the week of the WGC World Matchplay Championship for which is only narrowly missed qualification - this is his 12th start in 13 weeks! With such an exhausting schedule consistency is usually the trade-off and in all their common events this year, Furyk has finished ahead of De Jonge every time. He is already ahead after the 1st round and I expect him to stay there. Round 3 play (4pts): Stuart Appleby to beat Richard H. Lee +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
Appleby may be some way from his previous form, but he has still finished ahead of Lee in three of four common events this year. From this position and in today's breezy conditons, Appleby should be the better player again. Round 4 plays (4pts): David Lynn to beat Shane Lowry -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] TIED
Lynn has made a decent start to his PGA Tour career with a top-5 finish at the Honda Classic and he looks more than capable of maintaining his top-20 position. By contrast, this is Lowry's first cut that he has made this year and this week he he shot only his second sub-par round this year since the season-opening Volvo Golf Champions. On that basis, I see him shooting a higher score than Lynn for a third successive day. Rory McIlroy to beat Jim Furyk -133 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3
Since his final round troubles in the 2011 Masters, McIlroy has started the final round in the top-5 on 20 occasions: from this position he has shot a sub-par round in 19 of 20 times. From the same position, Furyk has shot a sub-par final round in just 3 of 7 times over the same period. |
