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4-5; -3.15pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (2pts): Steve Stricker to beat Henrik Stenson -105 @ Stan James LOST by 5
Stenson has finished outside the top-10 on both previous occasions that he has held the 1st round lead in a PGA Tour event, so I will gladly oppose him here even without considering his wrist injury and the calibre of his opponent. Steve Stricker to beat Adam Scott +110 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
Stricker holds a 12-4-0 h2h lead against Scott in the pre-weekend rounds in 2013, so given the consistency of his golf this year I will certainly accept these odds to back him against Scott. Jim Furyk to beat Graham DeLaet -133 @ Bet365 WON by 3
Furyk has an extremely impressive record on this course - six top-7 finishes in nine starts against elite fields - so it is surprising to see him down in 18th place after the 1st round. On the basis of both current and course form, he should bounce-back well today. Boo Weekley to beat D.A. Points -138 @ Bet365 LOST by 8
Weekley has finished ahead of Points in six of their last seven common events and hit the ball further, straighter and hit more greens in regulation than his opponent yesterday. He is already two shots ahead of the course debutant and I expect that margin to increase today. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts): Jordan Spieth to beat Billy Horschel -125 @ Stan James WON by 4
It has been over three months since Horschel secured a top-10 finish, so even though he is currently 4th, this is unfamiliar territory since June - the last time he started any round inside the top-10. Spieth is in great form at the moment and ranks 6th in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour (Horschel is 60th), so he should a strong contender if Stenson struggles today. Justin Rose to beat Billy Horschel -123 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 1
Rose is another in much better form than Horschel - he leads him 10-2-0 h2h in 2013 - and also ranks high. He is incredibly consistent when in contention, particularly in the final round, so I also expect Rose to go well today. Luke Donald to beat Sergio Garcia -120 @ William Hill LOST by 4
Donald has not been at his best this week (ranked 29th of 30 in greens in regulation), but he still starts the final round inside the top-10. That should not be a surprise as he has finished inside the top-3 in each of the last three years here. With Garcia ranking 166th in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour, it would be a surprise if he held onto his current top-10 position. Dustin Johnson to beat Billy Horschel -138 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
One more to oppose Horschel with. Johnson has finished ahead of Horschel in six of their last seven common events and has a good record when starting the final round inside the top-5, shooting 70 or better every time he has started the final round inside the top-5 since last 2012. Jim Furyk to beat Graham DeLaet -103 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 7
A repeat of the rd2 play and, even though both players had poor rounds yesterday, I expect Furyk to bounce-back in rd4 better than his opponent for the same reasons as in rd2. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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