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13-3; +40.00pts Round 1 plays (4pts): Charl Schwartzel to beat Brandt Snedeker +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 4
A couple of missed cuts in the last two weeks and a poor record in the rain point to Snedeker having a poor round today. A top-10 finish at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago and top-10 finish in the U.S. Open two years ago point to Schwartzel having the better of this matchup. Charley Hoffman to beat John Huh -105 @ Pinnacle [available generally] TIED
Hoffman, by contrast with Snedeker, is a good bad-weather player. And with three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, he is in far better form than Huh who has just one top-10 finish in the last 12 months. Even the event history angle favours Hoffman - he has played in two previous U.S. Opens and finished in the top-50 both times; Huh is making his debut. Thongchai Jaidee to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano +105 @ Unibet LOST by 8
The last time that GFC finished ahead of Jaidee was ten months ago. Together with his record of missed cuts (by 4 and 8 shots) in both his previous U.S. Opens, I don't see him ending that drought in this matchup this week. Justin Hicks to beat Brian Stuard +110 @ Unibet LOST by 1
A strange price. Hicks is coming off a 7th place finish in the St Jude Classic and has made the cut in each of the last four week while Stuard has reached the missed the cut in six of his last eight starts and was MDF in one of those two weekends reached. So it is easy to see why Hicks has finished ahead of Stuard in six of their last seven common events. With cuts made in two of his last three U.S. Opens (Stuard is making his debut) and that missed cut was by a single shot, it should be Hicks who is the favourite. Round 2 plays (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Rickie Fowler -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 7
Opposing Fowler who was 6th after the opening round, but has never finished in the top-40 in any previous U.S. Open. To be fair, he was 7th after the opening round of the 2008 U.S. Open, but then shot 79-76-72 to finish 60th. He also did the same at this year's previous Major: at Augusta National, he was 4th after the openin round, but then shot 76-70-78 to finish 38th. With the greens firming noticeably, he will be playing in the much tougher conditions later today and I don't see that he has the game to manage these conditions successfully. Stricker is his antithesis in this respect and should prevail. Hunter Mahan to beat Rickie Fowler +100 @ Bet365 WON by 7
And the same with Mahan who already has three top-20 finishes in the U.S. Open. He ranked 1st in fairways hit in rd1 (just one missed) and that control will be needed in the tougher rd2 conditions. Sergio Garcia to beat Brandt Snedeker -111 @ Bet365 WON by 1 By contrast, only six players hit less fairways in rd1 than Snedeker. He has missed the cut in both events since his 'low bone turnover' condition was diagnosed and he is struggling with his game again this week. Garcia should be able to take advantage. Round 3 plays (4pts): Bubba Watson to beat Rickie Fowler +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 3
Fowler struggled yesterday as expected and that should continue today as he has fallen to 37th and has yet to record a top-40 finish in this event. Since last year's U.S. Open, Bubba has finished ahead of Fowler in 13 of 17 common events, so doesn't deserve to be an underdog. Steve Stricker to beat Billy Horschel =138 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Opposing Horschel who is 0-for-5 when leading after 36 holes. Paired with Mickelson and Donald in the final group in the U.S. Open, this will be pressure that he has never faced before. For such an intense player, this will be hard to deal with for 18 holes, whereas Stricker will revel in it. Steve Stricker to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -143 @ Bet365 WON by 4
Colsaerts only hit 50% of fairways in rd2 which will hurt his chances of a decent rd3 if he repeats that performance today. Given that he ranks 156th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour, he may well hit far less fairways today. This is a good situation for Stricker and I don't see the Belgian staying in contention today. Phil Mickelson to beat Billy Horschel -155 @ Pinnacle and 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 2
Shorter odds with Mickelson in opposing Horschel, but still value. This may be the first time that he has held the 36-hole lead in a Major since 2005 (when he won the PGA Championship), bt he has won 7 of his last 10 regular Tour events from this position. Bo Van Pelt to beat Ernie Els -110 @ Paddy Power WON by 1
This is a matchup in which the selection has a perfect h2h record against his opponent in rd3 this year. But he also playing much better than the South African who ranks outside the top-100 (137th and 109th respectively) for dirving accuracy and greens in regulation this week; Van Pelt is 10th and 17th for those two categories and they are crucial for scoring on this course. Round 4 plays (4pts): Phil Mickelson to beat Hunter Mahan -125 @ Stan James, Bet365, Ladbrokes and William Hill [available generally] WON by 1
In the final group on a Major Sunday, this is a new experience for Mahan. The highest that he has ever started the final round of a Major is 5th (2009 U.S. Open) and he fell down the leaderboard on that day, as he has done on the three occasions that he has started the final round in a Major in 6th place. Mickelson is leading, but he does have experience and the crowd on his side. Lee Westwood to beat Henrik Stenson -132 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
He is too far back to challenge for this title, but yesterday's 69 gave Westwood some redemption after he had played so well until a horrible run in the 2nd round. Currently 16th, he is at least looking for his 3rd consecutive top-10 finish in this event which is something that Stenson has achieved just once in his career. Lee Westwood to beat Charley Hoffman -150 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 6
Westwood is looking to continue a run that he seen him finish behind Hoffman just once since the 2010 Masters. With only two players hitting less greens in regulation than Hoffman, Westwood's dominance of this matchup looks set to continue. Jason Day to beat Rickie Fowler -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
I don't see Day winning this event, but the fact that he finished 2nd in this event two years ago and in the top-3 on two occasions (including this year) at The Masters cannot be ignored. Fowler's only top-25 finishes in Majors have come in the British Open and, as outlined previously this week, he has yet to achieve a top-40 finish in this event. Bo Van Pelt to beat Charley Hoffman -125 @ Bet365 WON by 4
Top-15 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation, Van Pelt has been playing much better than Hoffman so far this week and having been two-under-par for the last three holes yesterday, he comes into the final round with some momentum and hopes of a top-10 finish; Hoffman bogeyed the last three holes to end his chances of victory this week. |
