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5-14; -21.98pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Bo Van Pelt to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, BetVictor, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 4
Not sure why BVP is the underdog in this matchup. He has finished ahead of Colsaerts in five of six common 1st rounds this year and whereas Colsaerts has yet to play on this course, Van Pelt has played in each of the last eight years, making six cuts and securing finishes of 5th (2010 when he was the 1st round leader) and 6th (2006 when he led after 2 rounds). John Senden to beat Boo Weekley -110 @ BetVictor and The Greek [available generally] LOST by 2
Another course regular in Senden who has played here in each of the ten years of the event and secured eight top-40 finishes. Weekley has just one top-40 finish here in five attempts so even though he played well last week, this is not a course on which he has traditionally played well. Zach Johnson to beat Kevin Streelman -105 @ Bet365 TIED
Streelman is another who hasn't played well on this course - he has missed the cut in all three previous visits with a scoring average of 75.00. Johnson can't match Streelman for form this year - though he has started tournaments much better: 4-2-1 in rd1 in 2013 - but he does have a good course history unlike Streelman. John Senden to beat Jordan Spieth +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Spieth is making his course debut so in a season in which he has blown hot and cold, I'll oppose him on this course where length off the tee is so helpful. Charles Howell to beat Kevin Streelman +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ William Hill] LOST by 4
Howell has played much better than Johnson this year - he leads Streelman 4-3-0 h2h in 2013 and 5-1-1 in rd1 - so I'll also back him against Streelman. Round 2 plays (4pts): Ryan Moore to beat Robert Garrigus -116 @ Bet365 LOST by 3
Two of the first-round leaders in this matchup. Quite a contrast between Moore who led this event after rd1 last year as well and finished 5th and also led last year's Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital Open last after rd1, which he won, and Garrigus who has led two previous events after rd1 and finished 39th and 38th. John Senden to beat Jordan Spieth +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
A repeat of the rd1 matchup which Spieth won by 1 shot. That reduces Senden h2h lead over Spieth to 11-5-1 in individual rounds over the past year, so I'll back him again at these odds. Sergio Garcia to beat Rickie Fowler -116 @ Bet365 WON by 4
Fowler was very poor in rd1, ranking outside the top-100 in greens in regulation for the day. Being the defending champion, there will be extra pressure on him as he is only just inside the cut line, so I'll back Garcia to finish ahead of Fowler for the ninth time in their last ten common events. Brendon De Jonge to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -110 @ Stan James WON by 6
I still see Colsaerts as a go-against player on the PGA Tour and so I'll oppose him with De Jonge who played poorly yesterday, but has a very good bounce-back record: in the last five occasions that he has started the 2nd round outside the top-100, he has shot 68-69-69-64-66. Martin Laird to beat Russell Henley +110 @ Paddy Power LOST by 4
Henley is another who I think is generally over-priced even though he showed a return to form last time out with 6th at Harbour Town. Laird was a winner on Tour last month (Texas Open) and holds the upper-hand in the season h2h record, so I'll back him at underdog odds in this matchup. Round 3 plays (2pts): Jordan Spieth to beat Kyle Stanley -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
Now it's weekend, I will change my tune on Spieth: five top-10 finishes in his last eight starts is enough evidence, as well as his defeats of John Senden in the first two rounds. Stanley had a very good round on the greens yesterday to get himself back under the cut line, but I'll back the player who has been more impressive from tee-to-green so far this week. Jordan Spieth to beat Lucas Glover -110 @ Stan James LOST by 2
Spieth ranks ahead of Glover in terms of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling and putts per greens in regulation so far this week. On that basis it is hard to see how Glover can be ahead of Spieth on the leaderboard. If this is the difference in their performances so far this week, I don't see Spieth staying behind his opponent for much longer. Zach Johnson to beat Russell Henley -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Henley is another who has been poor from tee to green this week, so I'll back Johnson for the second time this week as he looks set to continue his good form on this course. Robert Garrigus to beat Kevin Streelman -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Streelman has made the cut here for the first time in four attempts, but his stats this week are nowhere near as good as those of Garrigus who leads the field in driving distance and is 3rd in greens in regulation this week. Two top-15 finishes in the last two years here suggests that Garrigus has the right type of game for Quail Hollow and should maintain his current top-10 position. Zach Johnson to beat D.A. Points -120 @ Stan James LOST by 6
For all that Points has finishes of 1st and 2nd in the last five weeks, Johnson still holds a 4-1-0 h2h record against him in 2013 and 15-4-0 h2h record against him since 2012. With that dominance in this matchup, I'll back Zach once again. Round 4 plays (4pts): Lucas Glover to beat John Merrick -140 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 2 David Lynn to beat George McNeill +108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 6 David Lynn to beat Brian Harman -111 @ Bet365 WON by 3 Chris Kirk to beat John Rollins -124 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 5 Sergio Garcia to beat Lucas Glover -125 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] WON by 2 |
