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3-10; -22.94pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Jason Dufner to beat Keegan Bradley -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Hard to ignore Dufner this week. In the last four years, he has finished 9th, 7th, 3rd and 1st, and he had been inside the top-10 after rd1 on each occasion. Bradley hasn't fared too well on this course - 26th in 2011 (though he had been outside the top-50 all week until a closing 68) and mc in 2012 - so Dufner is backed in this matchup. David Toms to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Home State player Toms is another player to back in matchups this week. He is a former winner in 2001 at English Turn and does have a top-5 finish on this course. Colsaerts is making his debut this week and has been mc and mdf in the last two weeks, so this will not be an easy course on which to turn around his fortunes. Ernie Els to beat Jimmy Walker +100 @ 5Dimes TIED
Again backing experience, this time in the form of Els who finished 2nd here last year in the playoff loss to Dufner. Els shot 68 or better in each round last year, whereas Walker has broken 70 just three times in ten rounds on this course. Jason Dufner to beat Bubba Watson -106 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3
Back to Dufner to beat another former champion (2011). The difference between them can be seen from the relative consistency of their performances on this course: Dufner has broken 70 in 12 of 16 rounds over the last four years at TPC Louisiana; Watson has broken 70 in just 5 of his last 16 round on this course. Jeff Overton to beat Chris Kirk -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 6
Experience and decent course form again form the selection in this matchup. Overton has finished 13th, 2nd, 69th and 18th in the four years here and is coming off a 7th place finish in the Texas Open; Kirk missed the cut in his one previous appearance (2012). Round 2 plays (2pts): Brian Davis to beat Matt Jones +110 @ William Hill WON by 2 Billy Horschel to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -110 @ William Hill WON by 1 John Senden to beat Ryan Palmer -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 1 Brian Harman to beat Johnson Wagner -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1 Ernie Els to beat Boo Weekley -125 @ Bet365 LOST by 1 Round 3 plays (2pts): Luke Guthrie to beat Harris English -105 @ Bet365 TIED
This is the fourth time that English has started the weekend inside the top-20 this year; in the previous three situations, he has shot an over-par round on the Saturday every time, finishing outside the top-50 in two of the three occasions. In their 12 common events, English has never shot a lower score than Guthrie in either of the weekend rounds, so it's clear who I think will still be in this position by tomorrow. Matt Jones to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 3
Backing the player with course form in this matchup. Colsaerts has played surprisingly well on his course debut, but Jones has made the cut in all his previous five visits and that includes two top-10 finishes in the last three years here. As in the previous match, Colsaerts has yet to shoot a lower score than Jones in any weekend round, so I'll take these odds on a player much further from the limelight. Round 4 plays (4pts): Richard H. Lee to beat John Peterson -116 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
Opposing Peterson who has broken 70 in just one of ten rounds on the PGA Tour in 2013. Given that he ranks a lowly 62nd in greens in regulation this week, he is clearly not giving himself enough opportunities to shoot a low score without a career round on the greens and that will be much harder in the final round. With top-15 finishes in his last two PGA Tour events, Lee should be much more confortable in this position. Nick Watney to beat Boo Weekley -130 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 1
This represents just the fourth time since 2010 that Weekley has started the final round inside the top-10. On none of those previous three occasions has he managed to climb up the leaderboard in the final round and I don't expect him to do so here. I'll back Watney who is a former winner on this course and has finished ahead of Weekley in 10 of their last 11 common events. Morgan Hoffmann to beat John Peterson +117 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 2
Also opposing Peterson with Hoffman who recorded a top-15 finish on the PGA Tour last month and a runners-up position in the Louisiana Open last month on the Web.com Tour. With that recent form and playing better than Peterson from tee-to-green so far this week, I am surprised that he is priced at these odds. |
