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5-4; +4.04pts (system plays: 2-4-0) Round 1 play (4pts): J.J Henry to beat Darren Clarke +100 @ BetVictor WON by 1
Two players in indifferent form at the moment, but Clarke has the added problem of an injured chest muscle which caused him to withdrawn from the Northern Trust Open last month. He did make the cut last week right on the mark, but he average 74.71 in his three events on the PGA Tour this year with a best score of 71. He certainly looks opposable with Henry who has finished ahead of him in seven of their last eight common events and has a decent record on this course - he has played here four times in the last six years and finished in the top-40 every time. Round 2 plays (4pts): Russell Knox to beat Brendon Todd -150 @ Stan James WON by 2
Two players in very different form: after a promising opening two events of 2014, Todd has failed to secure a top-30 finish in any of his last five starts, whereas Knox has met that mark in five of his last six starts. With Todd languishing in 116th position (of just 120), I can't see any evidence in his recent form that he will bounce back today, whereas Knox has once again kept himself in contention and lies in 40th place after day one. Camilo Villegas to beat Jhonattan Vegas +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Surprised to see Vegas shoot 70 around Bay Hill yesterday ... his average score around this course was 75.83 up to this week. Villegas has a much better record on this course and will be playing in the calmer conditions this morning unlike his opponent. John Merrick to beat Angel Cabrera -120 @ Stan James WON by 2
Three missed cuts and a 52nd place finish is Cabrera's reward for his efforts in 2014 and while he is currently 40th after day one, he has been 18th, 31st, and 45th after day one in his last three events and finished 52nd, missed cut, missed cut. Merrick led the field in greens in regulation yesterday en route to finishing the day in 2nd place. He is clearly playing much better than his opponent and that should remain the case today as well. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Cink tb Weekley -105 (W); Molinari tb Casey -125 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Freddie Jacobson to beat Morgan Hoffmann -123 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes] WON by 1
With top-20 finishes in his last two starts, Jacobson is in much better form than his opponent who has missed three of his last four cuts. That poor play has been extended to this week ... even though he is 5th on the leaderboard, he ranks 72nd in driving accuracy and 62nd in greens in regulation of 78 players who missed the cut. That rather points to a difficulty in scoring well over the weekend. Zach Johnson to beat Henrik Stenson -119 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 4
Another play on form continuing for another week. Stenson has missed two of five cuts and has yet to record a top-15 finish this year - so very different to last year's form - whereas Johnson has finished 1st, 8th, 3rd, 33rd and 16th in his five strokeplay events this year. A regular in this event for the last ten years, he has a very record in this event and I can only see him improve on his current 29th place position over the weekend. Chesson Hadley to beat Francesco Molinari +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes] TIED
And another player in very good form - Hadley has finished 24th, 1st and 14th in the last three weeks on the PGA Tour. As such, he certainly has the confidence to maintain his current 2nd place position, which should be more fragile for Molinari who was in a similar position in the WGC-Cadillac Championship two weeks ago - he was one shot off the lead after 36 holes, but shot 76-73 over the weekend to finish 25th. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Villegas tb Hanson +100 (L); Jacobson tb Poulter +110 (L)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Jamie Donaldson to beat Brandt Snedeker +103 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 8
Donaldson's 2nd place finish in the WGC-Cadillac Championship brought him to the attention of a lot more golf watchers - he has been playing to a high standard on the European Tour for some time - and he is now inside the top-20 in this PGA Tour event. Snedeker is alongside him on the leaderboard, but his form has been as poor as Donaldson's has been good - his 46th place finish in the WGC-Cadillac Championship is his only top-50 finish in his last six strokeplay events. Form and confidence points to Donaldson being the favourite here, not his opponent. Bryce Molder to beat Billy Horschel +130 @ Boyle Sports [available generally] WON by 1
I'll bite at these odds, particuarly with Molder moving up the leaderboard after every round this week. He is the player with two top-10 finishes in his last three strokeplay event, Horschel has finishes of 50th (of 68), missed cut, missed cut in his last three strokeplay events. Patrick Reed to beat Georga McNeill -110 @ Sportingbet [available generally] LOST by 6
McNeill has been in good form recently, but that cannot come close to Reed's form in 2014: two wins and top-25 finishes in all seven starts this year ... and he is already in the top-20 with one round to play. But more than recent form, Reed has a particularly good record in the 4th round ... the last time that McNeill shot a lower 4th round score than Reed was back in October 2012. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Steele tb Chappell -121 (L); Senden tb Guthrie -105 (L)] |
