18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

7-1; +24.92pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Chris Kirk to beat Geoff Ogilvy -125 @ 5Dimes  WON by 2
A matchup between 1st and 2nd last week and I think that Kirk will again finish ahead of Ogilvy. He has done repeatedly with a 9-3-1 h2h record against his opponent over the last 12 months and that includes 8-4-1 in rd1 alone. With no course history to draw on, this should be enough for this single matchup for rd1.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Chris Stroud to beat Russell Henley -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Henley finished 2nd last week, but that was the exception to his previous form. Stroud had been playng much better recently and has a 10-4-1 h2h record against Henley in rd2 in 2014. Only one shot behind Henley after rd1, I think he is more likely to maintain his form than Henley.

Adam Scott to beat Martin Kaymer -138 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Similarly in this matchup. Kaymer similarly had a significant improvement in form last week, but it is the Australasian who dominates the h2h stats: 7-2-0 h2h in 2014 prior to last week's event. As with the first matchup, I'll side with proven abiity over very short-run form.

Bill Haas to beat Keegan Bradley -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Make that three selections who are behind their opponents after rd1, but who are dominant in the h2h stats and so are proven to be more likely to 'kick on' in rd2. Haas leads Bradley 12-6-0 overall and 10-4-3 in rd2 in 2014, though unlike the other selections, Haas has the better form over the last week or so.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Kuchar tb Stenson +130 (L); Haas tb Johnson -111 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Henrik Stenson +103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Paddy Power, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 5
Can't see why Stenson is favoured over Furyk in this matchup. The American is in much better form and has hit the ball further and straighter off the tee and hit more greens in regulation so far this week than the Swede. Stenson has struggled in rd3 in each of the last two PLayoff events from similar positions as he struggles to defend his FedEx Cup title.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat Martin Kaymer +120 @ Stan James  WON by 2
Opposing Kaymer who may be 3rd, but doesn't have the consistency to be backed here. He did finish 7th last week, but that was from off-the-pace and he hasn't achieved any other top-50 finishes in the last two months. The last time that he was in a similar position - Open de France in July - he shot 77 in the final round to drop to 12th. Palmer has been in much better form recently and doesn't deserve these odds.

Ryan Palmer to beat Billy Horschel +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 2
Horschel is 0-for-1 when leading after 54 holes and on that occasion - 2013 Texas Open - he surrendered a two-shot lead and finished three shots back in 3rd place. He has the form to match his high leaderboard position, but until he proves himself in this position I'll agree with the rest of the bookies and make Palmer the clear favourite in this matchup.

Bubba Watson to beat Martin Kaymer -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Bet365, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 7
Watson's form has been as patchy as Kaymer's, but the only times that he failed to finished ahead of the German in 2014 in the U.S. were the two events that Keymer won. Unless Kaymer won the event, Watson finished ahead of him, so that should point to the favourite being the American, particularly as he has a better record from this position.