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7-4; +9.16pts (system plays: 4-2-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Justin Rose to beat Henrik Stenson +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 4
There is added pressure on Stenson this year as the defending FedEx Champion and particularly with the press talking about a 'FedEx Champion jinx' - the first five champions failed to make it to the Tour Championship the following year. I doubt that will happen this year, but there is still extra pressure on the Swede and that talk of a jinx will only disappear after a strong performance this week. That may be difficult on a course that he hasn't previously played, whereas Rose finished 15th year in 2010. With two wins in his last five starts, he could be the perfect matchup opponent to take advantage of that pressure on the Swede. Hunter Mahan to beat Bubba Watson +110 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
Watson looks a player to oppose this week - since finishing 3rd in the Memorial Tournament almost three months ago, his finishes have been mc-31st-16th-mc-37th-65th and he is in danger of falling out of the top-10 on the World Rankings. Mahan has finished 15th and 7th in his last two events against two very strong fields and looks good value at these odds. Marc Leishman to beat Graham DeLaet +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
Again there should be value in these odds. Leishman has finished ahead of DeLaet in four of their last six common events and with four finishes of 11th or better in his last six starts, he is playing well enough to improve on his 31st place finish here in 2010. DeLaet has also shown some form in the last month - two top-15 finishes - but he finished 109th (of 121) on this course last time so he will need to improve significantly if he is to be competitive this time around. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Palmer tb Casey -105 (L); Leishman tb Matsuyama -111 (L)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Paul Casey to beat Brendon Todd +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2 Graeme McDowell to beat Seung-Yul Noh -149 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] WON by 4 Retief Goosen to beat Russell Henley -135 @ 5Dimes WON by 2 [unofficial rd2 system plays: Westwood tb Vegas -125 (W); Furyk tb Mahan -140 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Jason Day to beat Russell Knox -138 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 6 Lee Westwood to beat Kevin Streelman -140 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2 Bill Haas to beat Angel Cabrera -124 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1 [unofficial rd3 system plays: Day tb Watson -138 (W); Mahan tb Casey -110 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Graeme McDowell to beat Bubba Watson +101 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1 Kevin Chappell to beat Brendon Todd +101 @ @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 2 |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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