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1-1; -1.84pts (system plays: 1-1-0) Round 3 play (4pts): Keegan Bradley to beat Dustin Johnson +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally] TIED
Bradley has not been at his best from tee-to-green this week, but he's still inside the top-25 and only six shots off the lead. In his own words: "Just seems that the holes fit my eyes nicely ... There is something about this course that I see the right way, and that putts go in. It's that simple." He is #2 in career earnings in this event and the course record holder and that quote at the start of the week appears just as true after two rounds of indifferent play. He should only play better and so should shoot a yet lower score over the weekend. Johnson is alongside him in 25th position, but without a top-50 finish in over two months, I don't see him as likely to close the gap on the leader today. Round 4 plays (4pts): Gary Woodland to beat James Hahn -146 @ 5Dimes [available generally] LOST by 1
Hard to ignore a 5-0-1 h2h record in 2014 or 18-6-2 since the start of last season in Woodland's favour. Also in his favour is Hahn's inexperience in this position - they are both 3rd after 54 holes. Only twice previously has Hahn started the final round of a PGA Tour event inside the top-10: in the 2013 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, he shot 70 when leading and finished 5th shots back in 3rd place; in the 2013 Canadian Open, he shot 77 in rd4 to drop to 40th. Woodland is experienced in this position and warrants short odds. Matt Kuchar to beat Marc Leishman -163 @ Bet365 TIED
Another matchup with a dominant h2h record - Kuchar leads his opponent 13-3-0 since last year's Crowne Plaza Invitational and in his recent run of form, he has finished ahead of Leishman in all five common events. The odds are short, but, just on the edge of contention, this looks a very good place in which to back such a consistent player. Gary Woodland to beat Louis Oosthuizen -125 @ Stan James WON by 3
On the European Tour, Oosthuizen has won his last five events when he was the leader at the start of the final round, but he is 0-for-3 on the PGA Tour / WGC. Paired with a player who has never held the 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, this could be a difficult day for the final pairing, so I'll side with Woodland again. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Woodland tb DeLaet -116 (L); Kuchar tb Kaymer -126 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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