18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-3; +2.06pts  (system plays: 1-2-1)

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Jerry Kelly to beat Tim Clark +100 @ Bet365  TIED
A 5th place finish last time out was unexpected - it was just his second top-15 finish in the past year - but Clark has still missed the cut in five of his last eight events, so I will continue to oppose him. No such form worries for Kelly who finished 3rd last time as that was a continuation of the good form that he has shown this year. He leads Clark 11-6-0 h2h over the past year in both rd1 and over 72 holes, so these odds look rather generous.

Aaron Baddeley to beat Erik Compton -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 10
With four missed cuts in his last six starts, Compton is worth opposing despite having a career year that includes 2nd in the U.S. Open. Baddeley has missed just one of his last six cuts, including a 4th place finish in his penultimate start. With no course form, the difference in course form and Compton's record of missed cuts in all six previous visits to Canada on the PGA Tour, Baddeley is the obvious pick.

Charl Schwartzel to beat Graeme McDowell -105 @ Bet365  WON by 2
McDowell has finished 6th, 1st and 9th in his last three events, but they have all been on the European Tour. On the PGA Tour, he hasn't secured a top-20 finish in over four months, whereas Schwartzel has recored two in his last three. He also finished ahead of McDowell in the Open Championship last week and with the h2h record 14-4-2 in Schwartzel's favour in strokeplay events since the start of last year, he deserved to be the favourite, particularly on this Tour.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Graham DeLaet -138 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]  LOST by 2
Quite a strange matchup which can only be explained by a home advantage rationale for DeLaet. However, he has made the cut just twice in five previous Canadian Opens and has a best finish of 46th ... currently 44th, he may not improve that poor record this week. Kuchar was 2nd last year, as well as 4th in 2010, so home advantage cannot be a rationale in this matchup even though this course hasn't been used on Tour since 2001. Without it, this is a mismatch between a player in the World Top-10 and a player who has finished mc-51st-mc in his last three starts.

Jerry Kelly to beat Tim Clark +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 4
The same odds as the 1st round matchup and even though Clark played well yesterday, I see no reason not to back Kelly again until Clark's form has become rather more permanent.

Luke Donald to beat Graham DeLaet -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 10
Donald's form has been patchy this year, but the only cuts that he has missed in the last 12 months have been in Majors, plus he has a 6-1-1 h2h record against DeLaet in 2014 so he is still the better player week-to-week even when some way below his former World #1 best.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Streb tb Hadwin -150 (L); Watney tb Clark -108 (L)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Justin Hicks -163 @ Stan James [available generally]  TIED

Nick Watney to beat Danny Lee -125 @ Stan James, Paddy Power and Sportingbet [available generally]  WON by 1

Brandt Snedeker to Geoff Ogilvy -120 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 3

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Barnes tb Imada -110 (W); Singh tb Hoffmann +110 (T)]

No round 4 plays.