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6-9; -12.58pts Round 1 plays (4pts): D.A. Points to beat John Merrick +105 @ 5Dimes
Opposing Merrick who is making his course debut and, apart from his win in Northern Trust Open last February, made just one other top-15 finish in 2013. Points finished 12th on this course in 2012 and had a 11-6-3 h2h record against Merrick in rd1 last year so there should be value in these odds. Ken Duke to beat Sang-Moon Bae -110 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
Duke was similarly dominant in rd1 in his matchup in 2013: 12-7-2. Bae makes his debut in this event following his victory in the Byron Nelson Championship in May, but in the twelve PGA Tour events following that victory he recorded just one top-50 finish. He looks opposable on that basis. Round 2 plays (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Zach Johnson -105 @ Stan James LOST by 2
In six previous appearances in this event, Johnson has finished in the lower half of the leaderboard in five of those appearances which suggests that this is not a course that suits. Kuchar has finished 3rd, 6th and 9th in his previous appearances here and with finishes of 7th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd and 1st in his last five starts of 2013, he looks likely to improve his position over the weekend. Bill Haas to beat Gary Woodland -120 @ Stan James LOST by 3
With a h2h record of 20-8-6 in rounds 1 and 2 in 2013, it is clear that Haas dominates this matchup, particularly early in events. For all that Woodland's length off the tee is an advantage around this course, he finished 24th of 27 in his previous appearance in 2012 and is currently in the lower half of the leaderboard after the first round. Boo Weekley to beat Scott Brown -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
A similar story in this matchup: Weekley beat Brown 22-11-3 in rounds 1 and 2 in 2013. It was a horrible finish to his round yesterday, taking five shots to get down from 120 yards, but it does show that he was playing a lot better than his overall score which was matched by Brown in rd1. Bill Haas to beat Martin Laird -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
This is another matchup with an one-sided h2h record: since the Farmers Insurance Open a year ago, Haas holds a 13-4 h2h record against Laird over 72 holes and in individual rounds, his record is 34-14. It's enough to signal value at these odds. Round 3 plays (2pts): Webb Simpson to beat Michael Thompson -144 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 5
Rather a mismatch even though both are in 5th place after 36 holes: Simpson had a 11-4-1 h2h2 record against Thompson in 2013. Thompson hasn't recorded a top-20 finish since the Memorial Tournament in June; Simpson hasn't missed a cut over that period and has finished 4th, 1st, 7th and 5th in his last four starts. Ryan Moore to beat Kevin Streelman -125 @ 5Dimes [available generally] LOST by 2
Easy to oppose Streelman on 'Moving Day': their h2h record in r3 was 10-2-0 in 2013. It is also difficult to see how Streelman can improve on his current 7th place position when poor ball-striking has so far resulted in him ranking outside the top-20 (of 30) in greens in regulation so far. Bill Haas to beat Russell Henley -140 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 1
Two players back in 20th place, but Haas has played much better than his score: he ranks 10th in driving distance, 3rd in driving accuracy and 3rd in greens in regulation so far this week. I can only see him improving from this position and extending his dominance of this matchup to ten wins in their last twelve common events. Dustin Johnson to beat Zach Johnson -125 @ 5Dimes and Stan James [available generally] WON by 5
Opposing Zach Johnson who is just 1-for-6 when leading after 36 holes and that win was back in 2004. DJ is the defending champion and in the three previous times that he has been 2nd after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, he has shot 67-66-65 in rd3 to be the sole leader after rd3 in all occasions. Chris Kirk to beat Harris English +105 @ Bet365 WON by 2
I'll take these odds on a player who won last time out and finished 7th on his course debut two years ago. He also ranks 4th in greens in regulation so is playing well from tee-to-green and should improve his current 13th place position. Round 4 plays (4pts): Chris Kirk to beat Gary Woodland -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill] TIED
Backing Kirk again after he improved to 9th on the leaderboard and 2nd in greens in regulation on the week. He shot the higher rd4 score just three times in 12 common events last year, so these look good odds on him to beat Woodland again. Harris English to beat Billy Horschel -110 @ Stan James LOST by 3
Since the Players Championship last year, these two have played in ten common events with English finishing ahead of his opponent nine times. He is already ahead of his opponent this week and I'll back him to continue his dominance of this matchup. Dustin Johnson to beat Webb Simpson -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James] LOST by 3
Playing in the penultimate group with yesterday's playing partner should be an advantage for Johnson who has won 3 of 5 times when he has started the final round in the lead. Simpson has the added pressure of being in the final group and has won only 2 of 5 times when he has started the final round in the lead. Zach Johnson to beat Brandt Snedeker -111 @ Bet365 WON by 6
Backing Johnson to bounce back today, particularly as he is in the same grouping as yesterday, in the penultimate group and just two shots off the leaders. Snedeker ranks 25th (of 30) in greens in regulation so far this week so it is difficult to see how he can score much better in rd4. Ryan Moore to beat Ken Duke -129 @ 5Dimes [available generally] WON by 3
Moore had a couple of late bogeys to drop down the leaderboard yesterday, but at five shots off the lead he is still not out of this event. He has finished ahead of Duke in eight of their last nine common events and he looked far more capable of closing the gap on the leaders. |
