18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-2; +2.76pts  (system plays: 2-0-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Brandt Snedeker to beat Kevin Stadler -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek, Carib]  WON by 4
Opposing Stadler who has missed the cut in each of the last two years here, being cumulative 16-over-par, and has been in poor form recently. He has missed his last two cuts and since his opening round of The Masters which saw him finish the day in the top-5, he has broken par just once in his subsequent eleven rounds.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Dustin Johnson to beat Boo Weekley -123 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, Stan James, The Greek, Carib]  LOST by 1
This is the sixth time that Johnson has held the rd1 lead on the PGA Tour and his previous record from this position suggests that he will continue in the same form today: in those five previous occasions, he has shot 70 or better each time, never finished rd2 outside the top-5 and remained in the lead in three of five attempts. Weekley may be the defending champion, but he is only just inside the cut line and he has only finished ahead of his opponent in three of sixteen common events over the past year - Johnson should be a strong favourite in this matchup despite being the tournament leader.

Bill Haas to beat Matt Every -134 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek, Carib]  WON by 7
Weekley may be just inside the cut line, but Every is outside it as he continues his run of poor form that has seen him miss three of his last four cuts. Haas hit his drives further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation than Every yesterday, so he is clearly playing much better and will be looking to improve on his current 42nd place rather than struggle to get under the cut line.

Bill Haas to beat John Huh -116 @ Bet365  WON by 5
This is another matchup that Haas dominates - He has finished behind Huh just once in their last ten common events and he is already ahead of his opponent after rd1. Huh has also struggled in rd2 this year, shooting 70 or better just once in his last eleven events, so he may be another who will be pre-occupied with the cut line today.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Scott tb Johnson Z +100 (W); Kirk tb Oosthuizen -123 (W)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Bud Cauley to beat Martin Laird +100 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Two players down in 36th place, but with different ball-striking performances over the first two rounds. Cauley ranks #1 for greens in regulation (and missed just one green yesterday), while Laird ranked 95th of the 124 players in greens in regulation over the first two days. That is in line with Laird's recent play - he had missed four of his last five cuts prior to this event so I don't see him improving much over the weekend. Cauley is playing well enough to match his top-15 finish from last year.

Round 4 play (4pts):

Bo Van Pelt to beat Freddie Jacobson -108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek, Carib]  WON by 3
BVP has maintained his impressive run at Colonial - he has now made the cut in all eleven appearances in this event and now he sits alongside Jacobson just two shots off the pace. Given that he ranks 2nd this week in greens in regulation and inside the top-20 for both driving stats, he fully justifies his leaderboard postition. Jacobson is, as ever, a very scratchy player and he ranks 52nd (of 73) in greens in regulation so far this week. That tends to make scoring under pressure in rd4 more difficult and it has been 12 months since he was within 5 shots of the leader - that occasion was the 2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational and he shot 75 in rd4 to drop from 10th to 35th. I'm expecting a similar performance today and Van Pelt to remain in contention.