|
5-5; -9.64pts (system plays: 4-1-1) Round 1 plays (4pts): Stewart Cink to beat Charles Howell +110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 3
Struggling to see why Cink has been priced at these odds. He has a 4-2-1 h2h record against his opponent since the Players Championship and has made the cut in 14 of his last 15 starts; Howell has missed two of his last three cuts and he dropped away significantly after starting so well in rd1 last week. Charl Schwartzel to beat Patrick Reed -116 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Opposing Reed again even though he did manage a top-10 finish last week with a closing 65 from well off the pace. It represents only his third top-20 finish in his last 15 starts, whereas Schwartzel can count nine in his last 15 starts on the PGA Tour. With a much better record on this course, the South African should be the favourite in this matchup. Luke Donald to beat Martin Kaymer -105 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Kaymer has really struggled since winning the U.S. Open and recently admitted to having a 'nagging shoulder injury'. As such, I can see no reason why this week should see a reversal of form. Donald is another struggling with his game, but that is a consequence of swing changes rather than injury so there is more reason to expect a sudden increase in form. There is also the Ryder Cup issue. Kaymer's victory at Pinehurst secured his place in the team, but Donald is one place outside the automatic places in the World Points List so needs a good week to convince Paul McGinley that he should be a wildcard pick. Motivation will not be a problem for Donald. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Hearn tb Compton -120 (T); Senden tb Todd -115 (W)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Brendon Todd -138 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3 Charl Schwartzel to beat Matt Jones -138 @ Stan James WON by 3 Jim Furyk to beat Brandt Snedeker -133 @ Bet365 WON by 10 [unofficial rd2 system plays: Cink tb Steele -110 (L); Scott tb Na -138 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Billy Horschel -188 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 6
Short odds, but one statistic shows the one-sided nature of this matchup: Horschel has yet to finish ahead of Kuchar in any event in 2014. Admittedly, Horschel has played much better this week and sits alongisde Kuchar in 3rd place, but in the nine previous time that he has been inside the top-5 after 36 holes on the PGA Tour, he has broken 70 in rd3 just once, so I don't expect him to stay there. Bill Haas to beat Russell Henley -175 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 5
Another one-sided matchup: Haas leads Henley 13-3-1 h2h in 2014 and 7-1-0 in rd3 alone. As in the previous matchup, Henley has played much better than expected to sit alongside Haas in 5th place, but he has finished in the top-5 just once in the last 18 months, so I don't expect Henley to stay in contention for much longer either. Jim Furyk to beat Jordan Spieth -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Paddy Power] TIED
Only McIlroy and Fowler can match Furyk's form at the moment and certainly not Spieth who has finished behind Furyk in each of their last five common events. Both are four shots off the pace, but that should have been a smaller gap forFuryk who was unfortunate to have had a Thursday afternoon tee-times - those players have averaged 1.95 shots higher over the two rounds than the Thursday morning players. With this difference in form and difference in playing conditions up to now, I would make Furyk a clear favourite in this matchup. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Schwartzel tb Hearn -138 (W); DeLaet tb Bowditch -125 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Chris Kirk to beat Billy Horschel -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James] WON by 3
Despite playing with McIlroy, I like Kirk's chances in this matchup. He has finished ahead of Horschel in 9 of their last 12 common strokeplay events and he has a very impressive record from this position: on the nine previous occasions that he has started the final round in hte top-5 on the PGA Tour, he has shot 70-67-68-68-67-66-66-66-71. It is difficult to find anyone with such an impressive scoring record when starting the final round in the top-5. Jim Furyk to beat Robert Streb -163 @ Bet365 [available generally] LOST by 2
The pressure is on Streb who lies 16th after rd3 - he started the event in 97th place on the FedEx Cup Points List and is now projected to be 76th, but only 70 progress to the BMW Championship. As a result, he will need to press today and that is not a recipe for success most days, particularly under this pressure. It means that the gap between the World #6 and one outside the top-200 should be even wider than usual today. |
