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6-11; -28.68pts Round 1 plays (4pts): Lee Westwood to beat Matt Jones -105 @ 5Dimes and Carib [also available @ Stan James] WON by 2
Jones did finish 13th in the Humana Challlenge last week, while Westwood is making his year debut, but there are lots of positives for the Englishman. The first is the reunion with long-time caddy, Billy Foster. The second is the decision to swip the Middle East Swing on the European Tour. He relocated his family to Florida last year, but skipping between Tours left him exhausted and out-of-form. This Tour is now his overwhelming focus and he should do well on the South Course today - the last time he was here, he finished 3rd amd just one shot out of the playoff in the 2008 U.S. Open. D.A. Points to beat John Merrick +110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James and Carib] WON by 2
Big difference in event form between these two players. Points has three top-10 finishes in the last four years here; Merrick has three missed cuts in his last four visits here. That's enough of an edge at these odds. Round 2 plays (4pts): Marc Leishman tobeat Gary Woodland -116 @ Bet365 WON by 2 Lee Westwood to beat Matt Jones -125 @ 5Dimes and Carib [also available @ Stan James] LOST by 3 Michael Putnam to beat Brad Fritsch -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2 Martin Laird to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 4 Hideki Matsuyama to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes] LOST by 3 Round 3 plays (4pts): Charley Hoffman to beat Kevin Chappell -140 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib and Stan James] LOST by 2
Opposing a player who has yet to finish in the top-50 this year or in the top-50 in three previous attempts in this event. Hoffman shot a very impressive 69 around the South Course on Thursday - the 2nd best of the day on that course - and the difference between these two players should be emphasised on this course. Matt Jones to beat Kevin Chappell -125 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Opposing Chappell with Jones who has shown much better form recently and can also count a top-5 finish in this event. Lee Westwood to beat Keegan Bradley +105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 4
Backing Westwood for the third day. Currently 22nd after the first two days, given the reasons outlined above I'm convinced that he will improve his position over the weekend and shouldn't be plus odds against Bradley. Russell Knox to beat Brad Fritsch -140 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 2
Of the 82 players who have made the cut, only two have hit fewer greens in regulation than Fritsch this week. That points to difficulty in scoring over the weekend, so I'll back Knox to finish ahead of him, just as he has done in 12 of their last 13 common events. Charley Hoffman to beat Victor Dubuisson -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Back to Hoffman who should be a much stronger favourite against the young Frenchman who is certainly a very promising player and won his maiden European Tour event in November, but it is rather a big step to then be able to contend in his first-ever PGA Tour event. Round 4 plays (4pts): Ian Poulter to beat Kevin Chappell -150 @ Stan James WON by 1
Opposing Chappell again, this time with Poulter who holds a 17-5-1 h2h record against him. Given that the Englishman finished 7th or better in his last five events of 2013, he should be counted upon to take advantage of the expected poor round from Chappell. Ben Crane to beat D.A. Points -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Two players in very different trajectories this week: Points was 7th after rd1 and has fallen further down the leaderboard after every round; Crane was 136th after rd1 and has finished higher up the leaderboard after every round. In better form in 2014 and a former winner of this event, Crane should be the favourite in this event. Will MacKenzie to beat Brad Fritsch -140 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] WON by 1
Opposing Fritsch who has hit less greens in regulation so far this week than any player bar one ... that is not the typical profile of a player inside the top-10 at the start of the final round. He was in a similar position last year (the only time last year that he was in the top-10 after 54 holes) and shot 75. Given his ball-striking so far this week, a similar score seems likely today. Jordan Spieth to beat Gary Woodland -140 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 1
Opposing the leader who has won once in the three previous occasions that he held the lead at the start of the final round, but he was defending a five-shot lead on that occasion. This time he has 25 players within five shots so this will be a tough ask to defend this lead and last year's Rookie of the Year is in the perfect position to take advantage. Jason Day to beat Keegan Bradley -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James] WON by 3
Day has finished in the top-15 in his last six starts and is currently on course to make it seven. That form has also been evidenced this week as he ranks higher than Bradley in driving distance, accuracy and greens in regulation, so he should be a decent favourite to win this matchup and match the top-10 finish that he earned in this event last year. |
