18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-4; +2.76pts  (system plays: 0-2-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Jimmy Walker -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, Paddy Power and Carib]  WON by 4

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Retief Goosen to beat Sang-Moon Bae +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 2

Russell Knox to beat Chesson Hadley -145 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2

Lee Westwood to beat Jonas Blixt -143 @ Bet365  WON by 6

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Pettersson tb Langley +100 (L); Streelman tb Jones -133 (L)]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Tom Gillis to beat Hudson Swafford +113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  LOST by 1
Gillis showed good form in the Web.com Tour Finals and brought that form into this event as he returns to the PGA Tour - he lies 8th after 36 holes. Swafford had a difficult last season on the PGA Tour with 15 missed cuts in 26 events and with just one top-10 finish, it looks unlikely that he will be able to improve on his current 12th place finish - there will be a lot of pressure on him after last season's failing. So I don't see why the Tour veteran should be such a large underdog in this matchup.

Carl Pettersson to beat William McGirt +100 @ Bet365  WON by 1
A little further down the leaderboard with both players in 22nd place, but I don't see why Pettersson is the underdog in this matchup - he is clearly the better player. He holds a 15-9-1 h2h record against McGirt since the last Frys.com Open and that includes 6-2-2 in rd3 alone and is much more consistent.

David Lingmerth to beat Scott Langley +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib]  LOST by 1
Again backing the underdog in this first event of the new season. Langley returns to the Tour after the birth of his first child three weeks ago and it seems to have had a positive effect - he is 4th after 36 holes. But his record from a top-5 postion after rd2 hasn't been good in 2014: he would drop 34 places over the weekend in The Heritage, 10 places in the Travelers Championship and 11 places in the Wyndham Championship. Lingmerth hasn't been in this position - he is also 4th - on the PGA Tour, but he has done well on the Web.com from this position and he does have much better form from the Web.com Tour Finals having finished 4th, 27th, 14th and 6th in those four events before the two-week break and this event.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

David Lingmerth to beat Scott Langley +100 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Opposing Langley who doesn't have a good record from his current position, 3rd. He has started the final round in the top-5 on four occasions in 2014, but has finished the 4th round in 3rd place (Valpar Championship), 28th place (Memorial Tournament), 11th place (Travelers Championship) and 12th place (Wyndham Championship). It took a very late reversal for this matchup to shift from Lingmerth to Langley yesterday and his record in this position suggests it won't happen today.

Martin Laird to beat Scott Langley +114 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 3
Same reasons to oppose Langley in this matchup and don't see why Laird should be such a clear underdog. He did fall from 1st place yesterday after a poor opening nine, but he recovered well on the back nine and he has a much better record when inside the top-5 at the start of the last round - he has been in this position nine times on the PGA Tour and finished: 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 22nd, 1st, 11th, 2nd, which is very difficult to Langley's record.