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8-1; +27.60pts (system plays: 0-2-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Rory McIlroy to beat Adam Scott -105 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, Pinnacle and Carib] WON by 5
Opposing Scott in his first start since Hawaii. It is unusual for him to re-start his season this late, but he did so in 2011 when he went out in the 1st round of the World Matchplay in his first event and missed the cut in this event the week afterward. That missed cut is his only previous start on this course. That contrasts sharply with McIlroy who won this event two years ago and finishes of 6th, 5th, 1st, 2nd and 9th in his last five strokeplay events. He is certainly playing well enough to beat Scott who has proven rusty when returning from such an extended break. Robert Garrigus to beat Scott Brown -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Opposing Scott who finished ahead of just five players in the season-opening Tournament of Champions and in his five events since, he has failed to secure a top-40 finish. He should struggle as a course rookie unlike Garrigus who has made the cut in all four previous visits to PGA National. He is also in much better form with three top-30 finishes in his last four starts so really warrants favouritism. Round 2 plays (4pts): Adam Scott to beat Billy Horschel -125 @ Stan James WON by 4
Opposing Horschel who sits in 121st place after an opening 73, five shots and 99 places behind Scott. Horschel has never made from this position on either the PGA or Web.com Tour so without a history of bouncebacks, I don't expect one today. Scott played better than expected yesterday, ranking 15th in greens in regulation and he should get better as he plays in his first event since Hawaii. Sergio Garcia to beat Henrik Stenson -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] WON by 8
Stenson hasn't carried over his form of 2013 to this year so far and he languishes alongside Horschel in 121st place after rd1. Garcia has finished ahead of him in each of their last six common events and has become much more consistent. He had a poor round yesterday, but still shot a better round than the Swede and I expect he will play better today. Charles Howell to beat Billy Horschel -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power] WON by 5
Also opposing Horschel with Howell who, like Garcia, didn't score as well as expected yesterday but still finished ahead of his opponent in rd1. With top-30 finishes in each of the last four years on this course, I do expect Howell to make the cut, which is something that Horschel should find very difficult. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Hoffman tb Fernandez-Castano -120 (L); Gallacher tb Fernandez-Castano -110 (L)] Round 3 play (4pts): Ryan Palmer to beat William McGirt -110 @ Boyle Sports [available generally] WON by 9
Two players in 6th place on the leaderboard, but playing very differently: Palmer ranked 1st in greens in regulation over the first two days, McGirt ranked 69th ... he did rank 1st in scrambling so he is was salvaging his round well, but that does not point to scoring well over the weekend under pressure. With Palmer finishing ahead of McGirt in 16 of their last 20 common events, it is clear who should be the clear favourite in this matchup regardless of their ball-striking over the first two rounds. Round 4 plays (4pts): Sergio Garcia to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -138 @ BetVictor [available generally] WON by 2
I'll take these odds given Garcia's dominance of this matchup. Not only does he lead his compatriot 61-15-3 h2h in common events, but also 40-11-2 h2h in the 4th round ... and to show that is not ancient history, Garcia leads GFC 13-3-0 h2h in the 4th round since start of last season. He has been playing much better than his opponent and should continue his daily rise up the leaderboard after a poor 1st round score. Patrick Reed to beat Ben Crane -125 @ Boyle Sports [available generally] WON by 9
Big difference in form between these two: Reed has played in five events so far this year and finished in the top-20 every time; Crane did so in his season-opening event, but hasn't done so since. As with the first matchup, this is one that the selection dominates in the head-to-head stats - 9-3-0 in their last 12 common events - so Reed is a worthy favourite. Brendan Steele to beat Jason Kokrak -110 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 1
A much closer matchup on paper, but with two top-10 finishes in his last three starts, Steele is the more in-form player and looks more likely to reach that mark from this position than his opponent. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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