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6-5; -0.44pts (system plays: 0-6-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Dustin Johnson to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ Bet365 [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 10
McIlroy's form has certainly improved in recent months, but it is still not comparable to Johnson's form: in his four strokeplay events this year, he has finished 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. Add in a 4th place finish last year (McIlroy's best finish in three attempts at Redstone is 19th), plus the fact that Johnson ranks #1 on Tour for greens in regulation, scoring average and all-around ranking and it is clear why Johnson should be the favourite in this matchup even though he gets underdog odds. Carl Pettersson to beat Paul Casey -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 4
Casey is only in the field as a past champion and that was five years ago when he was #6 in the World Rankings and only a month away from his highest-ever ranking of #3. Now he is #99 and five years seems a long time ago. But he is not the only player with good form here: Pettersson finished 2nd two years ago and he looks much more capable of repeating that performance this week: he has finished inside the top-20 in each of his last three starts. Round 2 plays (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Charley Hoffman -133 @ Bet365 WON by 2
A matchup between the two leaders after rd1, but it is enough to look at how they have fared when in this position to see why Haas is a worthy favourite. He has led after rd1 on six occasions on the PGA and Web.com Tour, finishing rd2 in 3rd-6th-4th-1st-24th-2nd place. In Hoffman's case, he has finished rd2 in 5th-40th-8th in his three previous situations such as this. With that record from this position and 8-3-0 h2h record against Hoffman over the last 10 months, I make Haas a stronger favourite than Bet365. Stewart Cink to beat Brian Gay -150 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Carib] LOST by 5
Straightforward choice between a player who was 6th here last year and finished rd1 in 8th place and a player who best finish here is 26th and is currently 76th after rd1. And those leaderboard places are warranted - Cink ranked 5th in driving distance and 3rd in greens in regulation yesterday, Gay was 135th in driving distance and 97th in greens in regulation - so it is difficult to see how Gay can substantially improve his scoring with poor ball-striking. Freddie Jacobson to beat Cameron Tringale -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Continuing to back the Swede while he is in this form - he has secured top-20 finishes in each of his last four starts and is currently in 18th place after the 1st round. He has finished ahead of Tringale in each of those four events and while he is currently tied after rd1, he is playing so well at the moment that he should extend his streak to five events. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Bradley tb Simpson -130 (L); Els tb Cabrera -138 (L)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Camilo Villegas -150 @ Stan James WON by 2
Backing a course specialist in better form. Mahan has finishes of 11th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 1st since 2006 on this course (Villegas has yet to record a top-40 finish here) and he has top-10 finishes of four of his last six starts (Villegas' last top-10 finish was ten months ago). Luke Donald to beat Charl Schwartzel +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
I'd much rather back a player who has jumped inside the cut line in rd2 to a mid-leaderboard position rather than a player who has dropped from a top-10 position to mid-leaderboard position in rd2. With Schwartzel's focus probably more on next week's event (he was the 2011 Masters champion), this is a good matchup for Donald to win. Jimmy Walker to beat Cameron Tringale -150 @ Stan James LOST by 8
This is only the second time that Tringale has started the weekend inside the top-3. On the previous occasion - the 2012 Texas Open - he shot 76 in the 3rd round. There are no such worries over Walker's nerves in this position - he was 2nd in the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am at stage two months ago and surged into a six-shot lead in rd3 as well as winning the event. He is the #1 player on the PGA Tour this season (FedEx Cup leader, Money leader) and he should be much more likely to improve on this position over the weekend than his opponent. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Palmer tb Tringale -116 (L); Jacobson tb Flores -110 (L)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Chris Kirk -130 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
Ranking inside the top-20 for greens in regulation this week, last year's 3rd round leader should be higher up the leaderboard than his current position. And with a 15-5-0 h2h lead against Kirk since the start of last season, I don't just expect Haas to improve on his 37th place position, I also expect him to stay ahead of his opponent for the rest of the event. Luke Donald to beat Hunter Mahan -125 @ Stan James WON by 2
Donald continued to significantly improve his leaderboard position yesterday even though he shot his third consecutive 71. I expect him to continue his recent good form and finish ahead of a player who has a poor record in the final round: in the last three seasons, he has ranked 91st, 121st and (this season) 116th in final round scoring average on the PGA Tour. Carl Pettersson to beat Angel Cabrera -140 @ 5Dimes WON by 2
With top-20 finishes in his last three starts, Pettersson is clearly to side with in terms of form. He is three shots outside that mark at the moment, but as a runner-up on this course two years ago, there is every chance that he will make up that deficit. Outside his home country, Cabrera hasn't achieved that mark since July, so appears much less likely than Pettersson to do so today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Donald tb DeLaet -105 (L); Stroud tb Palmer -110 (L)] |
