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5-6; -5.30pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts): Matt Every to beat Brendon Todd -135 @ 5Dimes LOST by 5
Every followed up his top-10 finish last week with 65 in the 1st round to end the day in 6th place. I'll back him to continue this form, particularly against a player who hasn't finished ahead of him in any event for six months. Matt Every to beat Will MacKenzie -120 @ Stan James [available generally] LOST by 2
MacKenzie missed the cut last week and shot two shots worse than Every around the Nicklaus course yesterday. He may well make the cut from this position for just the second time in five attempts, but he shouldn't be competitive against an in-form player like Every. Bill Haas to beat Keegan Bradley -105 @ Bet365 TIED
Both players played on the hardest course yesterday, La Quinta, but former winner Haas (2010) still managed to finish the day in 6th place on the leaderboard; only one player (Charley Hoffman) shot a lower score on that course. He also ranked 9th in the field in greens in regulation, so he clearly scoring as well as playing better than Bradley who ranked 129th in greens in regulation. Freddie Jacobson to beat Rory Sabbatini +100 @ 5Dimes [available generally] LOST by 1
Two players down the leaderboard, but that can be expected with Sabbatini who missed the cut last week and in two of the last three years here. Jacobson who finished 2nd last time out and has never missed the cut in this event is expected to bounce back today. John Senden to beat Sean O'Hair +100 @ Ladbrokes [available generally] LOST by 1
Straightforward pick even though both players are well down the leaderboard. O'Hair missed the cut in both previous visits and has missed his last three cuts; Senden has four top-10 finishes in this event and has a good record of bouncing back in rd2 from such a position. Round 3 plays (4pts): Charley Hoffman to beat Brian Harman +125 @ 5Dimes VOID (playing different courses)
5Dimes have this matchup rather than Morgan Hoffmann vs. Harman, so it looks a good opportunity to back a former winner of this event (2008) who has three top-10 finishes in this event. Harman has played well so far this week - 22nd at the mid-point - but Hoffman has finished ahead of him in 15 of their last 16 common events; he is already five shots ahead this week. David Toms to beat Sang-Moon Bae +105 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Two players currently outside the cut line, but that is a rare occurence for Toms who has never missed a cut in this event. I'll back him to bounce back today; he has certainly been playing well enough to make the cut so far - he ranks 15th in greens in regulation. Brendan Steele to beat Ben Crane +125 @ SkyBet and Ladbrokes [available generally] LOST by 4
Another player who has played better than his leaderboard position (91st) - he ranks 7th in dirving distance, 13th in driving accuracy and 24th in greens in regulation so far this week. That's good enough play to warrant backing him at these odds. David Toms to beat Brian Gay +138 @ BetVictor [available generally] WON by 1
Backing Toms again at large odds against Gay, who although being the defending champion, lies alongside Toms at 91st on the leaderboard. Ranking 144th in driving distance, 154th in driving accuracy and 128th in greens in regulation over the first two days, he is clearly struggling with his game and doesn't warrant such short odds against Toms. Bill Haas to beat Keegan Bradley +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
Backing Haas in this matchups again and at better odds than yesterday. Bradley now ranks 141st in greens in regulation this week, so is playing worse than 24 hours ago (Haas ranks 6th in this category), so there is certainly value in this matchup. Round 4 plays (4pts): Brendon De Jonge to beat Martin Laird -125 @ Stan James WON by 2
Backing De Jonge to play well again today. He has the advantage of playing the same course for two days in a row - he shot 66 yesterday - has made the cut in all six attempts in this event and last week's 51st position was the first time in five events that he hadn't finished in the top-20. He beat Laird 11-4-3 h2h over the weekend rounds in 2013, so he is a justifiable favourite. Brendon De Jonge to beat Kevin Chappell -125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] WON by 6
Chappell also played PGA West (Palmer course) yesterday, but he shot the low round of the day (63) and so is a standard go-against in the following round. Hudson Swafford to beat Brian Harman -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 9
A basement battle, but backing the player in much better form - he finished in the top-10 last week - and has the stronger motivation to increase his current leaderboard position as a young Tour rookie. J.J. Henry to beat Daniel Summerhays -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 6
Backing Henry in this matchup. He led his opponent 9-4-0 h2h in the second half of 2013 and has been better tee-to-green than his opponent this week, ranking 36th in greens in regulation to Summerhays' 83rd. |
