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6-5; -1.32pts (system plays: 4-1-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Kevin Streelman to beat Luke Guthrie -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
Opposing Guthrie who has been in indifferent form recently, failing to reach the final round in six of his last ten starts, but it has been a difficult year beyond mere form - he has just one top-15 finish in 2014. Streelman, on the other hand, won last time out and he finished ahead of his opponent in 11 of their last 15 common starts. He looks far more likely to contend in this matchup of Home State players. Brian Davis to beat David Lingmerth -120 @ 5Dimes TIED
Lingmerth is another in indifferent form with a lot of missed cuts - he has missed the cut in seven of his last eleven starts. Ranked outside the top-100 on the PGA Tour in all the main stats categories - driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling and strokes gained - putting - it is difficult to see how he can be competitive this week, particularly as he is making his debut. Davis has made the cut in five of six previous visits and in eight of his last eleven starts, so he should be a clear favourite in this matchup. Jerry Kelly to beat Luke Guthrie -105 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and Pinnacle] WON by 3
Looking to Kelly to take advantage of Guthrie's troubles. He has been played a reduced schedule this year, but already has three top-10 finishes in 13 starts, whereas Guthrie has just one in eighteen. That form (and light schedule) has secured his playing rights on the PGA Tour for another season, which is a feat for someone who will be 48 in three months time. And given that he has five top-25 finishes in seven starts in this event, it looks very likely that he will improve his FedEx Cup ranking even further this week. [unofficial rd1 system play: Bae tb Goosen -106 (W)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Jhonattan Vegas to beat Jim Renner -125 @ 5Dimes WON by 4
Last week's top-20 finish saw Renner make the cut for the first time in six events and record his first top-65 finish in over three months. Last week's form appears to have gone as he is down in 63rd place after yesterday's round, so he looks a good player to oppose. Chris Kirk to beat Kevin Streelman -139 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James and The Greek] LOST by 2
Both players were below-par yesterday in terms of scoring, but I would back Kirk as the more-likely player to bounce back today. He hasn't missed a cut since August last year and has finished in the top-30 in all three previous appearances here. He would have finished inside the top-25 yesterday, but for a triple-bogey on the last hole after finding water. That also suggests that he is more likely bounce back today. Camilo Villegas to beat Jason Bohn -130 @ 5Dimes WON by 5
Bohn will need to bounce back today in order to make the cut and from his history that appears unlikely: in the last three years, he has finished rd1 outside the top-100 on 19 occasions and failed to make the cut on any occasion. Villegas in inside the cut line and looks more likely to make his fifth cut in six appearances at TPC Deere Run. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Wilcox tb Stuard -110 (L); Teater tb Glover -110 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Zach Johnson -115 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 5
Johnson comes a close 2nd to Stricker in terms of course form over the last five years so this is not a blind backing of Stricker at Deere Run, rather an opposing of Johnson when in the lead. Only once has he held the 36-hole lead on the PGA Tour and still remained the lead after rd3 - and that was back in 2004. Similarly he is 1-for-7 in terms of retaining the lead when leading after 18 holes and while he has a better record after 54 holes, it has been over five years since he was last in that position. Steve Stricker to beat Charles Howell -163 @ ToteSport WON by 3
Short odds but Stricker has a perfect 8-0-0 h2h record against Howell over the last 12 months so he would be an odds-on favourite on any course. Given that Howell ranks outside the top-100 in greens in regulation so far this week, it appears unlikely that he will remain in the top-10. The same cannot be said for Stricker. John Senden to beat Russell Henley -130 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 3
Two players in the top-25, but Henley has failed to finish an event in this postion for over two months and is a course debutant. Senden, by contrast, is not just in better form, but he is also a former winner here (2006) as well as finishing 4th two years ago. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Toms tb Henry -125 (W); Guthrie tb Stanley -127 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): David Toms to beat Jerry Kelly -111 @ Bet365 LOST by 2
Kelly did finish 4th last year, but that was from further back after 54 holes. In the last five years, he has been within three shots of the leader after rd3 just six times, shooting 71-70-72-77-65-70 in rd4 from this position. Not only did he fail to win any of those six events, he also failed to narrow the gap on the lead every time. I don't see him as a serious contender today whereas Toms will be playing under much less pressure, starting the day in 14th place and six shots off the lead. Jordan Spieth to beat Bo Van Pelt -142 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
The defending champion missed the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii in January and finished one shot behind Van Pelt - that is the only time that he has done so in any event over the last 13 months. He is currently one ahead of his opponent and sits alongside Toms, six shots off the lead after recoering from a poor opening round. Spieth certainly has the form and ability to close that gap to Harman whereas it has been 14 months since Van Pelt secured a top-10 finish. He certainly shouldn't be in contention today. Zach Johnson to beat Jhonattan Vegas -163 @ Bet365 [available generally] WON by 1
Johnson fell out of the lead yesterday, but with a course history that reads 2-21-3-1-2 in the last five years, I don't expect anything other than a bounce back today. For Vegas, his current 8th place position represents a chance for a first top-10 finish in over two years and at 154th in the FedEx Cup Points List, there will be a huge amount of pressure on him. He has started the final round in the top-10 on three occasions in the last two years and has shot 72-74-74 to fall out of the top-10 every time. It looks likely that he will follow the same pattern today. |
