18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-5; -4.56pts  (system plays: 0-6-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Webb Simpson -110 @ Sportingbet  WON by 2
Simpson broke 70 in rd1 last week for the first time in over two months, but then followed it with rounds of 73-77-77, so this was clearly not a return to form. And with a record of finishing 44th-mc in his two previous appearances here, there is little to suggest that he will contend in this year's Masters. Stricker has made the cut in each of the last five years here, including three top-20 finishes so he is more capable of contending. And with a h2h strokeplay record that reads 12-2-0 in his favour since the start of last season, there is very reason to expect him to beat Simpson this week.

Jason Dufner to beat Ian Poulter -109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]  LOST by 4
Poulter has had a poor year to date, finishing in the top-40 just once in six strokeplay events (and he exited the WGC World Matchplay in the 1st round). He does have a good record here, but in this form, it looks more likely that he will repeat last year's missed cut than his previous six top-30 finishes. For Dufner, he has yet to miss a cut this year or in his last nine Major Championships and in his three previous Masters appearances, he has finished in the top-30 every time. One final stat in favour of this matchup with a particularly emphasis on this round: Poulter has shot the lower rd1 score just once in their last ten common strokeplay events.

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Branden Grace +100 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
Every reason to oppose Grace this week. In his last six events, he has finished: missed cut - rd1 exit from the WGC World Matchplay - 40th in a limited field, no cut event - missed cut - MDF (made cut, didn't finish) - and missed cut last week by eight shots. He did finish 18th last year, but he had already secured three top-10 finishes that year so his form/confidence is very different this time around. Matsuyama hasn't played since the Cadillac Championship, but he had showed very good form up to, and including, that event and he has made the cut in both his previous two visits, so he is not playing as a course debutant as he has done virtually all year. I don't understand why he would be the underdog in this matchup.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Matsuyama tb Dubuisson -110 (L); Donald tb Spieth -110 (L)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Hunter Mahan to beat Marc Leishman -120 @ Pinnacle and Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 7
Leishman turned the clock back yesterday when he recorded 70 around a course on which he had been the rd1 joint-leader last year and finished 4th overall. However, it was notable that he didn't break par again after his fast rd1 start last year and with no top-30 finishes since January, a similar repetition appears likely. Mahan also has a good record on this course - three top-12 finishes in the last five years - and with an opening 74 he is still very much in contention, particularly given the form that he has shown recently: four tim top-10 finishes since February.

Sergio Garcia to beat Bubba Watson +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 7
Garcia was the joint-leader with Leishman after rd1 last year and it looked as though he may get close to that mark again yesterday, but 3-over-par for his final five holes saw him drop down alongside Mahan. But, like Mahan, he has been in very good form this year, finishing in the top-20 in all six starts, including a win in Qatar and a 3rd place finish last week in the Houston Open. I'll back him to bounce-back against former champion Watson who is 2nd after rd1, but didn't have a great day on the greens.

Sergio Garcia to beat Matt Kuchar -111 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]  LOST by 4
Backing Garcia against another player in good form, but given his troubles in the last two weeks in closing out events, he should be opposable for now.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: McDowell tb Fowler -108 (L); English tb Dubuisson -150 (L)]

Round 3 play (4pts):

Rickie Fowler to beat Ian Poulter +106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 3
Fowler may have dropped from 12th to 26th in rd2 following difficulties at Amen Corner, but he is still showing the form that earned him a top-10 finish in the Houston Open last week and he is now 4-for-4 in cuts made at Augusta National. I don't see why he would be the underdog against a player who has so struggled with form this season - he has shot twice as many rounds of 75+ than rounds in the 60s this year.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jordan Spieth to beat Bubba Watson +117 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 3
Spieth failed to win the year-opening Tournament of Champions when tied for the lead at the start of the final round, but he still played well, shooting a 4-under-par 69. Watson, by comparison, is 1-for-8 when leading at the start of the final round. His only victory came in the 2011 Zurich Classic of New Orleans when he quickly fell three shots back by the middle of round and was helped by a bizarre penalty on Webb Simpson when his ball moved as he was about to tap in from one-foot on the 15th hole. The end-result was a playoff in which Watson was then very fortunate not to have his opening drive finish in the water. He certainly looks the more likely to buckle today so I'm surprised by the odds.

Steve Stricker to beat Jason Day +120 @ ToteSport  LOST by 3
Day returned for his first event since February after a period out with an injury to his left thumb and playing with a bandage on his left wrist. He did shoot 70 in the easier conditions yesterday to jump to 18th on the leaderboard, but he has not looked at his best this week. At these odds, I will certainly oppose him with Stricker who has been much more consistent this week.

Adam Scott to beat Jason Day -114 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  TIED
And I'll oppose him with the defending champion.who has been very good from tee-to-green this week, but whose putting has kept him out of contention. Even yesterday, when he shot 76, there were only two players who hit more greens in regulation that Scott: Justin Rose and Miguel Angel Jimenez who shot 69 and 66 respectively. However, the damage had been done in the first five holes, so it is indicative of his determination yesterday (and which should be likely to carry on to today) that he was then level-par from that point onwards.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Kuchar tb Watson B -125 (L); Molinari tb Olesen -120 (L)]