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3-1; +8.00pts No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts): Shawn Stefani to beat Padraig Harrington -111 @ Bet365 WON by 4
Stefani hadn't shown recently the type of form that would see him finish yesterday in 5th place, but he had shown better form than Harrington who once again struggled and hasn't achieved a top-20 finish in 16 PGA Tour starts this year. With that difference in form, I expect Harrington to remain outside the cut line and Stefani to win this rd2 matchup. Shawn Stefani to beat Martin Flores -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 4
Flores has been in even worse form than Harrington with eight missed cuts in his last nine starts, so it is no suprise that Stefani has finished ahead of him in eight of their last nine common events. Flores did play better yesterday, though still behind Stefani, but he doesn't have the form to continue this, particularly on a course on which he is 0-for-3 in top-50 finishes. Bill Haas to beat Webb Simpson -104 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib] WON by 4
Another matchup with a one-sided h2h record: since March, Haas holds a 12-3-2 h2h record againt Simpson over both 72 holes and in rd2 alone. Haas wasn't at his best yesterday, but I only see him bouncing back from his current 48th place position today. He has been outside the top-40 on 11 occasions so far in 2014 and improved his position in rd2 in 10 of those 11 ocasions; the only time that he didn't was in The Heritage when he was forced to retire before rd2 with a wrist injury. Round 3 play (4pts): Jon Curran to beat Tommy Gainey +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Gainey may have won this event two years ago, but Past Champion status is his only route into PGA Tour events this season other than sponsors exemptions and that shows how much has struggled since that win. Rookie Curran already has a top-10 finish in this 2014-15 season from two weeks ago and looks a much better prospect both today and for the rest of this season. No round 4 plays. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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