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3-3; -1.32pts (system plays: 0-2-1) Round 1 plays (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Jason Dufner -111 @ Bet365 TIED
Opposing Dufner despite his 2nd place finish last week. That result was certainly unexpected - his best finish in his previous four starts had been 48th - and now he plays in an event that he has avoided for the last three years. Given that he had missed the cut on both previous occasions and failed to even match par in any round, his decision to skip this event is understandable. But that makes him a good player to oppose and particularly with former winner (2011), Stricker, who has still finished ahead of Dufner in five of their last six strokeplay events despite being below his peak form this season. Ryan Moore to beat Jason Dufner -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
Moore is another who has not been at his best this year, but with seven top-40 finishes in the last eight years at Muirfield Village, he looks set for a much better week this week, which is the opposite of what is expected for Dufner. Freddie Jacobson to beat Michael Thompson -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
A top-10 finish on this course last year and a top-10 finish last week has put Thompson on the radar for this week and Bet365 has accordingly made him the favourite in this matchup. But Jacobson still finished ahead of him last week and he also has a top-10 finish on this course, plus he is much more consistent which is why he holds a 6-0-1 h2h record against Thompson over the last three months. [unofficial rd1 system play: Moore tb Bradley +100 (L)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Adam Scott to beat Dustin Johnson -150 @ Paddy Power LOST by 2
The new World #1 has continued the form that saw him win last week - he shot 69 in rd1 to finish the day in 11th position and 53 places ahead of Johnson who is only just inside the cut line. The Australian dominates this matchup 14-3-2 h2h since the start of last season and that includes 13-3-1 in rd2 alone. Short odds, just justifiably so. Bubba Watson to beat Keegan Bradley -133 @ Bet365 WON by 6
A surprise to see Bradley shoot a low score yesterday - his best finish at Muirfield Village so far is 50th and he had broken par just once before yesterday's round. Given his inconsistent form this season, I don't expect him to remain inside the top-5 unlike Watson whose 66 was better only by McIlroy yesterday. Twice a winner already this year (and twice a runner-up), Watson looks far more likely to challenge McIlroy for top-spot this week. Steve Stricker to beat Jason Dufner -116 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Returning to this rd1 matchup. Dufner played much worse than his score yesterday, ranking 83rd for driving distance, 65th for dirving accuracy, 81st in greens in regulation, 44th for scrambling, 46th for putts per GIR and 63rd for strokes gained putting, yet he finished in 28th place on the leaderboard alongside Stricker. As outlined yesterday, he has a poor record on this course and has avoided it for the last three years, so it appears very unlikely that he will score any better today. A winner from three years ago and with much better stats in rd1, Stricker can certainly shoot a lower score today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Kirk tb Casey -125 (L); Woodland tb Todd -132 (T)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Jason Day +138 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, Stan James, The Greek and Carib] WON by 6
Opposing Day for a couple of reasons: (i) this is his first start since The Masters seven weeks ago following a thumb injury, so rustiness should be an issue this week and his ball-striking stats confirm that he is some way off his best; (ii) even when he was fully fit and playing well, he has never really done well on this course with a best finish of 27th in his five previous starts and just four of sixteen rounds under par prior to this week. They don't indicate that he will shoot a low score today and finish very much higher than his current 20th place position. I don't see Stricker catching Bubba Watson today, but the former champion (2010) looks more likely than Day to, at least, maintain his current top-20 position and challenge for a finish in the top-10. On a different course and when fully fit and not rusty, Day warrants strong favouritism in this matchup, but not today. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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