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5-3; +5.80pts (system plays: 0-0-2) Round 1 plays (4pts): Webb Simpson to beat Jordan Spieth -110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365, Stan James and Carib] WON by 2
Opposing Spieth who has yet to show the consistency of Simpson who has finished in the top-10 in six of his last seven starts and that one 'failure' was a 23rd place position in the Humana Challenge. The other reason for opposing Spieth is that course form is very important around Riviera. He is not the same player that missed the cut two years ago, but Simpson's finishes of 15th and 6th in his two starts here put him at a decisive advantage. K.J. Choi to beat Ian Poulter -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
A course form angle here as well: Poulter is playing the West Coast Swing to ensure that he has the minimum 15 Tour starts to retain his PGA Tour membership, so he is now playing a course that he hasn't played since 2007 when he missed the cut, as he had done in 2005. Choi has been here every year since 2001 and can count four top-10 finishes on this course. He has also shown decent form this year, finishing 2nd in the Farmers Insurance Open whereas Poulter has a best finish of 47th. Poulter's famous enthusiasm isn't evident this year and I'll certainly oppose him ahead of next week's matchplay event. Jimmy Walker to beat Jordan Spieth -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 5
Also opposing Spieth with this year's hottest player. He didn't play the week after his win in the Sony Open in Hawaii, but when he played the week after his win in the Frys.com in October last year, he finished 12th the following week so a post-win letdown appears to be unlikely. And similar to the Simpson play, there is a strong course form element - in the last three years, he has finished 4th, 4th and 16th on this course. Round 2 plays (4pts): Hideki Matsuyama to beat Cameron Tringale -130 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James and Carib] WON by 1
They may have only played in nine common events, but Tringle has never finished ahead of Matsuyama so I don't expect it to happen this week. Tringale does have decent course form, but Matsuyama has been playing as a Tour rookie and being in contention for more often than Tringale and that is why he is #21 in the World Rankings and Tringle #183. Jason Kokrak to beat Francisco Molinari -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
It was a surprise to see Molinari in 2nd place after Thursday as this event is a warm-up for next week's matchplay event. As such, I think that he will struggle to maintain this scoring form in only his second start of 2014. Kokrak has three top-20 finishes already and is already in the top-20 this week despite playing in the more difficult conditions yesterday. Martin Laird to beat Matt Every -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 4
Every has the unwanted record of every finish being lower down the leaderboard than his previous event in 2014, so he has not met the consistency that Laird has achieved so far this year: 20th-25th-37th-19th. Given that he ranked 66th in driving distance, 79th in driving accuracy and 80th in greens in regulation yesterday, Every appears not to be playing well enough to arrest that trend, nor the 3-12-1 h2h record that he has against Martin Laird in rd2 over the past 12 months. No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts): Hideki Matsuyama to beat Harris English -115 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 4
Backing the better player in this final round matchup. Both players are seven shots off the lead, but five shots to 2nd place is achievable if McGirt struggles today. Matsuyama recovered well from a double-bogey on the 15th hole with back-to-back birdies to bring him back to the fringes of contention. I think that he will maintain that momentum today. K.J. Choi to beat Charley Hoffman -125 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Sitting as high as 13th place is an unusual position for Hoffman in this event - in seven previous appearances, his best finish is 30th. I'll side with Choi again this week who has the course form and enough recent form to indicate that he will finish off a good week at Riviera. Cameron Tringale to beat Sang-Moon Bae -138 @ Bet365 TIED
In a repetition of last year's event, Bae was in the lead after 36 holes, but then fell down the leaderboard in the 3rd round. His 72 yesterday was better than last year's effort, but having failed to record a top-20 finish in six consecutive events this year, it is difficult to see how he may have the form or the energy to bounce back today. Tringele has the form - top-15 finishes in each of the last two weeks - as well as a good history on this course - top-25 in each of three visits - to suggest that he is the more likely to remain in the top-10 today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Adams tb Hahn -105 (T); Walker tb Spieth +116 (T)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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