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4-4; -0.72pts (system plays: 2-3-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): John Huh to beat Nick Watney +100 @ 5Dimes WON by 8 Daniel Summerhays to beat Carl Pettersson -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 1 Davis Love to beat Daniel Berger -120 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1 [unofficial rd1 system plays: Overton tb Cabrera -110 (W); Merrick tb Gore -110 (L)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Davis Love to beat Daniel Berger -120 @ 5Dimes TIED Jerry Kelly to beat Colt Knost -130 @ 5Dimes WON by 4 Ben Martin to beat Brian Harman +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and The Greek] WON by 5 [unofficial rd2 system plays: McGirt tb Lee -114 (L); Henry tb Fernandez-Castano -120 (L)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 plays (4pts): Jason Bohn to beat Charley Hoffman -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Paddy Power and The Greek] LOST by 8
Opposing Hoffman who has been in poor form for some time - he has missed five of nine cuts since July and has a best finish of 30th in that period. He was also well-placed last week, but shot 75 on Sunday to finish 35th, so I'm expecting his confidence to be still rather brittle. In fact, even when he was competing more regularly, he has struggled to convert his chances in recent years: in the last five occasions that he has started the final round in the top-5, he has shot 77-72-74-71-76 in rd4, dropping between 5 and 20 places each time. Bohn leads the event, but he was 3rd here last year and 2nd last week so confidence should be high and he is 1-for-1 when sole leader at the start of rd4 on the PGA Tour. John Huh to beat Charley Hoffman +100 @ Bet365 LOST by 5
Huh won here two years ago and now in 12th place, he looks set for another high finish on this course. He has improved his leaderboard with each successive round and I expect him to take advantage of any problems that Hoffman may have today. Nicholas Thompson to beat Danny Lee +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and The Greek] LOST by 2
Lee has started the final round inside the top-10 on 12 occasions in the last three years - not once has he finished that round in a higher leaderboard position, so I don't expect him to do so today, particularly as he has recorded just one top-10 finish this year (29 attempts). Thompson has shown better form recently and shouldn't be the underdog in this situation. [unofficial rd4 system play: Kelly tb Stefani -115 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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