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4-3; +2.48pts (system plays: 2-0-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Jim Furyk to beat Graeme McDowell -111 @ Bet365 WON by 7
This course is certainly long and that would lead to most people discounting Furyk's chances this week, but in terms of matchups, it is notable that he ranks above McDowell on the PGA Tour in terms of driving distance. He also has positive associations with Valhalla as it was his victory against Miguel Angel Jimenez that won the 2008 Ryder Cup for the American team (he also made the cut here back in 2000). In very good form and with a 10-3-1 record against McDowell over the last 12 months, I'll back him in this matchup. Gary Woodland to beat J.B. Holmes -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 4
On to two of the longest hitters on Tour. Woodland is the underdog, but he has finished ahead of Holmes in four of their last six common event and holds a 12-4-0 h2h record against him since the start of last season. Holmes did win the Wells Fargo Championship three months ago, but he has recorded just one top-20 finish since then whereas Woodland has been much more consistent and hasn't missed a single cut in his last 20 starts. Round 2 plays (4pts): Lee Westwood to beat Ian Poulter -120 @ Stan James WON by 1
Westwood is the joint leader after rd1, but he is a good front runner going wire-to-wire on the last two occasions that he has been rd1 leader; the last time was just over three months ago. He has been a rd1 leader in a Major Championship - the 2012 Masters - and didn't fold under the pressure, finishing 3rd. So I'll back him against Poulter who has been struggling with his form until yesterday round, but still his the ball shorter off the tee, hit fewer faiways and fewer greens than Westwood. Sergio Garcia to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ Bet365 TIED
Two players in very different form: Garcia has finished 2nd-2nd-12th-2nd in his last four starts, Watson has just one top-30 finish in his last five starts and is currently outside the top-30 again. But for putting, Garcia would have been much higher up the leaderboard and, while it is his perennial achilles heel, I expect him improve today and beat a player he has finished ahead in 10 of their last 12 common events. Jerry Kelly to beat Tommy Fleetwood -147 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 3
Opposing Fleetwood who has been in very poor form for the last three months, missing five of seven missed cuts and a best finish of 33rd. Currently 93rd, making his debut in the U.S. and just his second Major Championship (he missed the cut at Hoylake last month), I can't see him playing at the weekend. Kelly has shown some good form recently and inside the top-10 after rd1. I don't see him being there at the end of the week, but I don't see him struggling like Fleetwood today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Fowler tb Dubuisson -140 (W); Scott tb Rose -116 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Billy Horschel to beat Victor Dubuisson +117 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 1
I'm surprised to see Horschel as the underdog in this matchup - he has been in much better form than Dubuisson recently and he has been playing better than the Frenchman so far this week - Dubuisson sits inside the top-10, but has only hit 20 of 36 greens in regulation, whereas Horschel has hit 28 so far this week. Vijay Singh to beat Richard Sterne -105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 1
Sterne is another player in poor form - since returning from injury (torn labrum), he has failed to record a top-50 in four events, so I think that he will struggle to maintain his current top-20 position. Former winner Singh should also struggle to stay in the top-20, but at least he has shown some form recently. Nick Watney to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Stan James TIED
Opposing Dubuisson again with a player in good form - he has finished 12th and 8th in the last two weeks. Like Horschel, he has hit a lot more greens than Dubuisson this week and in this form, he could certainly remain within five shots of the lead for another round. Round 4 play (4pts): Cameron Tringale to beat Matt Jones +102 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3
At 11 shots off the lead, it is a matter of both form and attitude in this position and Tringale has a clear edge in both of these. He finished 4th in his last event in the U.S. whereas it has been three months since Jones last finished in the top-30. In terms of attitude, Tringale has been more than 10 shots off the pace in rd4 on six previous occasions in 2014 and finished closer to lead at the end of rd4 on every occasion. Jones has been in this occasion three times in 2014 - all in his last three events - and finished lower down the leaderboard and further from the lead every time, shooting 80-73-72. He is in the same position for the fourth event in a row and a similar result is expected. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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