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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
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0-2; -8.60pts 

No round 1 plays.

 

No round 2 plays.

 

No round 3 plays.

 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Patrick Reed to beat Graeme McDowell +100 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 2
Reed can into this event in great form with finishes of 16th. 1st and 19th so far in 2014 and he can continued his good ball-striking this week - he ranks in the top-10 for greens in regulation - even if he hasn't scored as well. With McDowell making his 2014 debut this week, his lowly position is more expected so he looks less likely to improve significantly today.

Phil Mickelson to beat Jimmy Walker +100 @ Bet365  TIED
Walker's two wins on the PGA Tour have come from off the place - on both occasions he started the final round in 4th place. In fact, he has never previously led a PGA Tour event after 54 holes, so while he should easily with a six-shot lead, it would be understandable if he played very cautiously today so he shouldn't set too high a target for Mickelson to reach to win this matchup.

Roberto Castro to beat Victor Dubuisson -115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
I've opposed Dubuisson previously on the PGA Tour over the weekend and I'll do so again. He is certainly a great talent for the future and he has won on the European Tour, so I'd be surprised if he was yet to a serious contender on this Tour.

NOTES

* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *

Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my 18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting policy:

There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round, but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours. This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.

As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.

Note that '2pts' represents 'to win 2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).