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5-5;-3.50pts (system plays: 3-1-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Angel Cabrera to beat Y.E. Yang +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 8
Cabrera is making his first start of 2014, but he has played well on this course previously - he was 5th at the cut last year - and should do enough to beat a struggling Yang, who hasn't finished in the top-25 on the PGA Tour since the Honda Classic, in the first week of May last year. Justin Leonard to beat Luke Guthrie +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 1
Two players in decent form in 2014 - Guthrie has finished 18th and 23rd in his two starts; Leonard has finished 32nd, 3rd and 28th in his three starts - so it course form that gives Leonard the edge: whereas Guthrie missed the cut here on his debut last year, Leonard has four top-10 finishes, including two runners-up spots. And with Leonard finishing ahead of Guthrie in 7 of their last 10 common events, there is enough here to point to value at these odds. Round 2 plays (4pts): Graham DeLaet to beat Matt Jones -110 @ Stan James LOST by 7
Jones may be 3rd after the opening round, but he may struggle to stay there - his best finish on this course is 40th in four attempts. DeLaet's course form is also poor, but he is in much better form at the moment, finishing in the top-10 in each of his last four events. He is only two shots behind Jones, so can certainly extend his current run of finishing ahead of his opponent in five of his last six common events. Hideki Matsuyama to beat Chris Kirk +110 @ Bet365 WON by 6
Two more players near the top of the leaderboard after day 1. For Kirk, this is the 13th time that he has been inside the top-10 after round 1, but in those previous occasions only once did he not finish the 2nd round further behind the leader than at the start of the day. That includes both his previous starts in 2014 when he shot 75 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to fall from no shots behind the leader to eight shots and 69 in the Sony Open in Hawaii to fall from one shot behind the leader to three shots. Matsuyama has a proven track record when in contention whereas Kirk is less so. Round 3 plays (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Chris Stroud -150 @ 5Dimes LOST by 3
I like Haas in this position - 15th and seven shots off the lead. There is no pressure, but he still in contention at the start of Moving Day. With a good record on this course 6th last year, 19th the year before and 3rd at the start of final year before that, I expect him to move up the leaderboard today. That should be more problemmatic for Stroud whose ball-striking has been poor so far, ranking 80th in driving distance, 68th in driving accuracy and 73rd in greens in regulation over the first two days. Bill Haas to beat Nick Watney -138 @ Bet365 LOST by 3
Backing him against Watney as well who been struggling for form, which is reflected in a 10-4-1 h2h record in favour of Haas over their last 15 common events. Hideki Matsuyama to beat Pat Perez -125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ ToteSport and BetFred] WON by 2
PP has carried over his good form from last week, but it took his runners-up position to earn him his first 'h2h victory' against Matsuyama in over a year. Both are now in the top-5 and I'll back a player in the top-25 in the World Rankings and over 100 places higher than his opponent as the more likely to stay there over the weekend. [unofficial rd3 system plays: DeLaet tb Woodland -130 (W); Mickelson tb Kirk -135 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): Hideki Matsuyama to beat Harris English -105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Carib] WON by 2
Continuing to back the Japanese player who I think is undervalued in most markets. He has a prodigious record when in contention in Japan and in his six PGA Tour events in the last year, he has finished in the top-20 every time, averaging 67.67 in the process despite those six events including two Majors. Morgan Hoffmann to beat Greg Chalmers -125 @ Bet365 WON by 2
Opposing Chalmers who is a go-against when in contention on the final day. In his last eight occasions that he has started the final round of a PGA Tour event, he has failed to shoot 70 on every occasion, including 77 in the final round last time. Coming off a top-20 finish and ranking inside the 24th for driving distance, 19th for driving accuracy and 7th for greens in regulation this week (Chalmers is 70th, 59th and 38th respectively), his ball-striking is clearly good enough to take advantage of any troubles that Chalmers may have today. Hideki Matsuyama to beat Ryan Moore -120 @ Stan James WON by 1
Back to Matsuyama. Matsuyama has finished ahead of his opponent in all three common events in the U.S. over the past 12 months and with Moore a better front-runner than a chaser on the final day, I'll back the Japanese player again. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Davis tb Bae -110 (W); Curtis tb Ernst -135 (L)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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