18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-3; +8.64pts  (system plays: 3-1-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Kevin Streelman to beat Patrick Reed -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 5
Since winning the Cadillac Championship and proclaiming himself to be one of the top-5 players in the world, Reed's form has plummeted, averaging 73.70 per round in the last four tournaments and securing a best finish of 48th. There can be little doubt that this is partly becauwse of the reaction that followed his claim. As a rookie to Sawgrass and with the course less forgiving off the tee than recent courses, he should struggle to re-discover his form this week. Streelman is a very steady player, missing just one cut on the PGA Tour since July and he can combine good form - a top-15 finish last week - with a good record on this course - he was 2nd to Tiger Woods last year and had finished in the top-20 in 2011.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Kevin Streelman to beat Matt Jones -114 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 10
Backing Streelman again after he found a way to shoot a sub-70 score yesterday when not at his best at the start of the round. He does play/score well on this course, so I expect him to continue to do so today. Jones has missed two of three cuts here and is a shot further back in 29th position despite playing in the easy morning conditions. On the back of two missed cuts, he looks to be a playing to oppose and particularly with a player who has missed just one cut on the PGA Tour in over ten months.

Jim Furyk to beat Henrik Stenson -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
Stenson does have a good record here and is a former winner (2009) and his form has improved recently, but his ball-striking was very poor yesterday - he ranked 81st in driving distance, 97th in driving accuracy and 108th in greens in regulation. Unless he can improve off the tee today, he will struggle to even match yesterday's 71. Furyk's recent form should see him as more likely to break 70 today - his last five finishes have been 20th-6th-14th-7th-2nd.

Matt Kuchar to beat Adam Scott -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 4
Even without yesterday's 77, I'd be backing Scott to lose to Kuchar, against whom he hasn't finished ahead in any event in 2014. A winner two years ago, Kuchar kept himself in contenteion yesterday despite playing in the tougher conditions. Having finished 4th-2nd-5th-1st in his last four starts, that is to be expected. Scott finished his round with double-bogeys on 17 and 18 and so, with only four players below him on the leaderboard, it will take an enormous bounceback to be playing at the weekend. His record is indicative that he doesn't has the necessary temperament for that to happen - in the 28 occasions that he has been outside the top-100 after rd1 since 1996, not only has he has never made the cut, but he has never broken 70 in rd2 and averaging 75.96 in rd2 in this position.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Huh tb Cabrera -125 (W); Molinari tb Langley -120 (W)] 

Round 3 play (4pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia +100 @ Bet365  LOST by 3
I'll back Furyk once again as an underdog in most matchups and particularly in his current form. Garcia consistently proves himself to be fragile and while Furyk is another player to tends to falls short in the final round, he is playing well enough to remain in the top-5 for at least one more round.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Zach Johnson +150 @ SkyBet [available generally]  WON by 3

Justin Rose to beat Brian Stuard -163 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally]  WON by 1

Sergio Garcia to beat John Senden -138 @ Stan James [available generally]  WON by 7

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Rose tb Johnson Z -118 (W); Cink tb McNeill -111 (L)]