|
4-2; +6.60pts (system plays: 3-1-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Lee Westwood to beat David Toms -125 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 1
A winner here in 2010 on his debut (11th on his other visit) and in good form with three top-10 finishes in five starts since The Masters, including one win ... it all points to a good week from Westwood. Of course, Toms is a multiple-winner of this event, but the last time was a decade ago and he has finished ahead of Westwood just once since the 2013 Masters, so I don't see it happening this week. Lee Westwood to beat Ryan Palmer -115 @ 5Dimes LOST by 3
Palmer is another with a good record at TPC Southwind - top-5 in each of the last two years - but unlike Westwood, he has just one top-20 finish since The Masters and has a poor h2h record against the Englishman, particularly over the first three rounds. For instance, Westwood leads him 9-2-2 in rd1 since the start of the last season. Westwood has the consistency to be player to side with in matchups; Palmer does not which is why he remains outside the top-50 in the World Rankings. Boo Weekley to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 1
Opposing Leonard who came through 36 holes of qualifying on Monday to earn a place in the U.S. Open for the first time in four years. That was rather a suprise given that he has failed to secure a top-30 in any of his last ten events. Like Toms, he is a multiple-winner of this event, but that is distant history and he is certainly opposable in 2014. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Gay tb Hadley -110 (L); Curtis tb Bae -103 (W)] Round 2 plays (4pts): Camilo Villegas to beat Scott Stallings -105 @ Bet365 WON by 8
Despite playing in the worse conditions in the morning, Villegas still ended day one with the 4th-best greens in regulation stats and 11th-best for driving accuracy (Stallings was 46th and 102nd respectively), so he is clearly playing well enough to secure his fourth top-10 finish in the last five years here. Also with a dominant 15-5-2 h2h record over the last 12 months, Villegas should be a strong favourite in this matchup. George McNeill to beat Jeff Overton +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
McNeill dominates this matchup, finishing behind Overton just once in eight common events in 2014. With Overton in poor form over the last five weeks, I'll back McNeill to continue his dominance of this matchup. Rickie Fowler to beat Patrick Reed -111 @ Bet365 WON by 3
Reed is another in poor form - a best finish of 48th since his win in the Cadillac Championship in March - and he looks set to miss the cut again this week. Fowler has not been at his best recently, citing flu-like symptions at Colonial two weeks ago, but he is already ahead of Reed and should stay there.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Hoffmann tb Mackenzie -116 (W); Senden tb Stadler -119 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
