18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-4; -1.00pts  (system plays: 3-2-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Ryan Palmer to beat Will MacKenzie -115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
Backing the home State player in this matchup who has been in very good form this year, recording three top-10 finishes in five starts and has a record of 9th-mc-32nd-15th on this course; MacKenzie has also been in good form but in his two previous appearances on this course, he has finished wd-41st. But that is part of a wider under-performance by MacKenzie in Texas: he has played six PGA Tour events in this State, has made the cut just once and has never broken 70 in any round on the PGA Tour in Texas; Palmer has made nine of his last ten PGA Tour cuts in Texas.

Bryce Molder to beat Ryo Ishikawa -105 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Fatigue will surely become a factor for Ishikawa soon. Since his season-opening event in Hawaii, he has missed just one PGA Tour event as this will be his 10th PGA Tour start of 2014. This will be a new course for him, whereas Molder has made the cut in both his previous two visits and was 3rd after rd1 last year. In good form this year, he shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup on this course.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Billy Horschel -163 @ Stan James  LOST by 1
Horschel did hold a two-shot lead at the start of the final day here last year (and finished 3rd), but he hasn't shown anything like that form recently and complained of muscle spasms last month in the Honda Classic. Yesterday, he shot the worst round of the day (80) with only David von Hoffman (+9 after 12 holes) below him on the leaderboard. With no possibility of missing the cut, I don't see a 'bounceback' today whereas Kuch has a top-10 position to defend in rd2.

John Huh to beat Ben Curtis +110 @ Stan James  WON by 3
An opposite play in this matchup - Huh is 121st and Curtis is 10th after rd1. In fact, this is a repeat of the 2012 Texas Open shootout when Curtis held off a charging Huh to finish 1st (and Huh 2nd). That win extended Curtis PGA Tour playing rights until the end of this season, but it has been 22 months since he recorded a top-10 finish so, even though he played well here two years ago, I think that it is very unlikely that he will hold onto his current top-10 position. At 121st on the leaderboard, Huh does have a chance of make the cut unlike Horschel so there are incentives for rd2. He can also draw on his experience two years ago when he was 119th after rd1 and, not only did he make the cut, he pushed Curtis so hard for the title.

Jordan Spieth to beat Zach Johnson +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
Another matchup in which I'm backing the player to bounce back. In Spieth's case, it is certainly a surprise that he is 105th after rd1, but he did recover well after six bogeys in his opening seven holes. With Johnson being unimpressive last week and with a poor record on this course, he looks a player to oppose.

[unofficial rd2 system play: Knox tb Harman +100 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Jerry Kelly to beat Fred Funk -139 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 7
A matchuo of veterans, but there is still a huge gulf between these two. The last time that Funk recorded a top-25 finish on the PGA Tour was back in January 2008, whereas Kelly has recorded three top-15 finishes in his six starts this year. That clearly points to Funk falling from his current 16th place position, whereas Kelly may be able to improve on that position over the weekend.

Ryan Palmer to beat Russell Knox -120 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, Pinnacle and Carib]  WON by 3
Backed Palmer in the 1st round and will do so again for the same reasons. Knox had previously struggled on this course and needed a good round yesterday to get back inside the cut line. He shouldn't be able to compete with Palmer over the weekend on this course.

Freddie Jacobson to beat Pat Perez -138 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 4
PP played well on the West Coast as usual, but his form has dropped since then and looks very opposable with Jacobson who has finished 2nd-5th-18th-15th in the four years on this course and has finished in the top-20 in each of his last three events. He is currently 6th and looks set to continue those very impressive runs.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Kokrak tb Hadley -120 (L); Na tb Mackenzie -120 (W)] 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jordan Spieth to beat Jerry Kelly -138 @ Stan James  TIED
Having finished day 1 in 108th position, it has been an impressive effort by Spieth to get himself inside the top-15. Six shots behind 2nd place, he is very unlikely to seriously challenge for this title, but that should enable him to play more freely with the form that he has shown over the last two rounds (as well as since last year). Kelly recovered from a poor start yesterday and, as outlined yesterday, has three top-15 finishes in 2014, but I don't put him in the same class as the World #13.

Andrew Loupe to beat Steven Bowditch -121 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 1
Bowditch extended his lead from one to three shots yesterday, but it was his short game that saved the day: he chipped in on his first two holes and only hit eight greens in regulation. With an invitation to the Masters going to the winner, he will be playing under a lot of pressure today so I can only see him come back to the field.

Chesson Hadley to beat Will Mackenzie -120 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 10
Hadley has been in great form recently, finishing 24th-1st-14th-26th in the last four weeks on Tour and he is in 14th place at the start of the final round. Mackenzie's putting has saved him this week - he ranks 2nd in putting average, 2nd in putts per green in regulation and 6th in strokes gained putting - under the pressure of the final round, Hadley's superior tee-to-green play should lead to the lower score.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Koepka tb Romero -124 (W); Tringale tb Harman -120 (L)]