18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-3; -2.32pts  (system plays: 2-0-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Matt Kuchar to beat Martin Kaymer +100 @ Bet365  WON by 5
Kaymer has finished ahead of Kuchar in each of the last two Playoff events, but given that the roles had been reversed in nine of the eleven previous common events this year, I wouldn't make Kaymer the favourite in this matchup. The other issue is that Kaymer is making his debut on this course and that doesn't augur well for rd1 performance.

Kevin Na to beat Brendon Todd -110 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Todd is another making his debut on this course and given that his best finish is 36th in the last two months (six events), he is not playing well enough to be a contender this week. Na has been much more consistent, has a top-10 finish already in the Playoffs and does have course experience here.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Billy Horschel to beat Chris Kirk -125 @ Carib [available generally]  WON by 2
Siding with the in-form player to maintain his momentum - Horschel has finished 2nd and 1st in the last two weeks and leads this event alongside Kirk after rd1. He played well here last year, shooting 70 or better in all four rounds and finishing 7th and, while I don't expect him to win, he has shown in recent season that he can be very streaky in short burst of world class form.

Sergio Garcia to beat Ryan Palmer -125 @ SkyBet, Bet365, BetVictor and Boyle Sports [available generally]  LOST by 4
Both players in 11th place, but in very different form yesterday. Garcia ranks 7th or better for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation; Palmer ranks in the lower half for all three, and for greens in regulation only two players hit less than Palmer in rd1. Maybe that's a hangover from his shank on Sunday or maybe it's just that he struggles on this course - only two players finished behind him in his only previous appearace at East Lake (2010). Either way, Garcia looks a solid pick in this matchup.

Gary Woodland to beat Russell Henley -125 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  LOST by 7
Other than his 2nd place finish in the Deutsche Bank Championship, Henley has struggled for form in the Playoffs, finishing 61st and 59th in the other two and he is already four shots off the pace after rd1. Woodland is far more consistent and at a higher level than Henley as shown by their h2h record: he leads Henley 20-1-1 since the PGA Championship last year and that includes 15-4-3 in rd2 alone. He should be a much stronger favourite despite Henley's one week of recent form.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Haas tb Johnson -110 (W); Spieth tb Matsuyama -124 (W)]

No round 3 plays. 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jason Day to beat Bubba Watson +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 4
Both players ended the 1st day in 3rd place and with realistic chances of winning this title and the FedEx Cup, but whereas Day has ground out good scores over the next two rounds to enter the final round just three shots off the pace in 4th place, Watson is three further shots back in 11th and with very little chance of achieving either title. With just one round left in this season, this may become a rather tired round from Watson if he doesn't get back into contention very early in the round. As such, I'll back Day to play a better round and finish ahead of Watson for the 7th time in their last nine common events.

Jordan Spieth to beat Webb Simpson -108 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 1
A basement battle with only pride to play for, so in this situation I'll back the younger player and one with a strong bounceback motive after his 80 yesterday. He is also the better player as shown by almost every meaningful statistic.