18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

5-2; +11.32pts  (system plays: 1-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Marc Leishman to beat Brooks Koepka -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 5
I'd expect Koepka to follow on from his 4th place finish in last week's U.S. Open - no-one in the last five years has finished in the top-5 in both the U.S. Open and this event the following week. Given that he is making his debut on this course, I'll oppose him with Leishman who won this event two years ago, is well-rested from not playing at Pinehurst last week and is in good form with a top-3 finish in the Byron Nelson Championship last month.

John Peterson to beat David Lingmerth -110 @ 5Dimes  TIED
Opposing Lingmerth who is making his debut on this course and has recorded just one top-40 finish in his last ten starts. Peterson had a top-20 finish last time out (St Jude Classic, two weeks ago), hasn't finished behing Lingmerth in any event over the last ten week and does have course experience hainvg made the cut two years ago.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Brandt Snedeker to beat Jonas Blixt -120 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 1
Blixt can into this event in poor form and it continued in rd1. He had failed to reach the final round in four of his last five starts and he starts rd2 outside the cut line. Not only that, though, he ranked 148th in driving accuracy, 95th in greens in regulation, 123rd in putts per GIR and 119th in strokes gained putting, so he certainly deserved to be outside the cut line. The same can be said of Snedeker's position in the top-10 - 7th for driving accuracy and 9th for greens in regulation, He finished in the top-10 last week, so has hte ball control and the form to stay in the top-10 for at least one more round.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Scott Langley -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 3
The opposite in this matchup ... BVP is the one languishing in 61st place with poor ball-striking stats in rd1 and Langley is the one in the top-5 and ranked 7th in driing accuracy and 2nd in greens in regulation in rd1. But this rd1 position is not unusual in this matchup: over the last 12 months, Langley has a 10-5-4 h2h record in his favour in rd1, but in rd2 it is Van Pelt who holds the 10-6-3 advantage (as well as 4-2-1 in rd3). And in the last two occasions that Langley has finished rd1 in the top-10, he has shot then 77-69-75 (2013 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am) to finish 62nd and 73-75-71 (2014 The Heritage) to finish 38th, so it doesn't look as though he will stay in his current position for too long.

Marc Leishman to beat Patrick Reed -120 @ Paddy Power  WON by 3
Finishing 35th last week was Reed's best performance since winning the Cadillac Championship in March and he has been a very profitable go-against since that win and subsequent self-proclamation. However, he finds himself outside the cut line after rd1 and with extremely poor stats in rd1 (115th in driving accuracy, 118th in greens in regulation, 86th in putts per GIR and 98th in strokes gained putting), so he looks to be still in the 'go-against' category. Leishman was not at his best yesterday, but he is still a winner from two years ago and is in much better form.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Johnson Z tb Blixt -138 (L); Van Pelt tb Blixt -125 (W)] 

Round 3 play (4pts):

Tim Wilkinson to beat Sang-Moon Bae +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  TIED
Two players inside the top-20 and within six shots of the lead, but I don't see Bae moving up the leaderboard from this position - since 2013, he has started rd3 in the top-20 on eight occasions, but improved his position in rd3 only once and averaged 73.13 in rd3. By contrast, Wilkinson has been in this position on 11 occasions and averaged 69.55, which is over 3 1/2 shots better than his opponent. Wilkinson also dominates the h2h stats and comes into the event in much better form, so I would make the favourite in this matchup which makes these odds (with ties push) good value.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Brendan Steele to beat Scott Langley -111 @ Bet365  WON by 5
A matchup between the leader after rd1 and the leader after rd2. Both have fallen from that pole position, but I expect Steele to bounce back more than his opponent. Steele has two top-15 finishes on this course in the last three years whereas this is Langley's first cut made here and in terms of their h2h record, Steele leads Langley 22-12-1 since the start of the last year and he has the lower rd4 score in each common event over the last ten months.

Jason Day to beat Bubba Watson -105 @ Bet365 [available generally]  WON by 3
Watson's record here can't be ignored - 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th place finishes within the last six years - but at nine shots off the lead, it is a question of motivation in this situation and that mitigates against him in this matchup. Over the past 12 months, he has been 9+ shot off the pace at the start of the final round on six occasions and shot 70 or better in rd4 just twice; Day has also been in this position six times over the last 12 months, but he has shot 70 or better every time, finished rd4 higher up the leaderboard every time and finished closer to the lead every time.

K.J. Choi to beat Aaron Baddeley -116 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 2
A matchup between 3rd and 2nd, so close in terms of leaderboard position, but not the h2h stats: Choi leads Baddeley 20-6-2 since the start of last year (and 8-2-1 in rd4 alone). The last time that Baddeley started the final round inside the top-10 in any event on any Tour was back in 2011 and it has been over two years since he started the final round inside the top-10, so contention rust should be an issue and I don't expect him to contend too strongly today.