18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

6-2; +16.04pts  (system plays: 4-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Jimmy Walker -105 @ Bet365  TIED
Walker was certainly at the top of his game at the start of the year, but his form has dipped since then - three top-10 finishes in his last ten starts vs. two wins in three starts in January/February - and he looks to be opposable in Majors (just 3-for-7 in cuts made) and in the U.S. Open in particular. He hasn't qualified for this event since 2002 when he missed the cut, having finished 52nd in his one previous appearance. He is clearly not in the same form as in the early 2000s, but experience is needed in this event and that puts Stricker at a distinct advantage. He has reduced to schedule to concentrate on events such as this, he is coming off a 6th place finish in the Memorial Tournament, has made the cut in each of the last eight U.S. Opens and when he played here in 1999, he finished 5th. I would certainly make him the favourite in this matchup.

Steve Stricker to beat Jim Furyk +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 3
Furyk should be a stronger opponent than Walker as he has the necessary U.S. Open experience and success, but he is another whose form has dipped recently after a purple patch of form. There are also concerns over his putting - he ranks 178th in Putting Average and 135th in Strokes Gained - Putting - so I don't see him being a challenger this week. He is also particularly worth opposing in rd1 - Furyk ranks 121st in 1st round scoring this year (and was 85th last year), which constrasts sharply with Stricker who has ranked 1st, 5th, 4th, 5th and 3rd in rd1 scoring on the PGA Tour in the last five seasons.

Ian Poulter to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -124 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
There are few bigger stories in golf at the moment than Jimenez winning his home Open at the age of 50, but rather than rest in preparation for this event, he played in the Lyoness Open last week in search of Ryder Cup points. He finished 5th and is now four places below the last qualifying place for the European Points List and just two places below the last qualifying place for the World Points List. It is certainly possible that he will be playing in the Ryder Cup this year, but in his pursuit he has now played four weeks in a row on the European Tour (including that emotionally-draining playoff win in Spain) and now competes in this event. For a player half his age, it would be a physically and mentally gruelling schedule and they would be opposed this week on that basis. For Jimenez, it is a no-brainer. Poulter's form has been much-improved over the last couple of weeks and he finished 6th last week in the St Jude Classic. I'm confident that he will at least make the cut and finish ahead of Jiminez.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Kirk tb Blixt +100 (W)] 

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Luke Donald to beat Paul Casey -125 @ Stan James  WON by 6
A lot of distance between these two on the leaderboard, but I expect Casey to drop back a little and Donald to save some face today. Casey has finished rd1 inside the top-20 on 12 occasions in the past five years on the PGA Tour; in 10 of 12 occasions, he has finished rd2 lower down the leaderboard. Without a strong record in this event over the last six years or particularly straight off the tee, I don't see him matching yesterday's score. I also expect Donald not to match yesterday's 77. He has been in this position previously and played well in rd2, and that includes being in this position twice previously in this event: he shot 78 in the opening round of the 2006 U.S. Open and then shot 69-70-72 to finish 12th; he shot 79 in the opening round of the 2012 U.S. Open and then shot 72 in rd2 to still miss the cut, but jump 32 places on the leaderboard and end the day closer to the lead than he started it.

Bill Haas to beat Louis Oosthuizen -116 @ Bet365  WON by 1
Haas is another who will be disappointed with his leaderboard position (50th) after rd1, particularly as he ranked 3rd in greens in regulation yesterday. With that record of hitting the green in this event, he should be much hgher on the leaderboard and I expect this to be remedied today. By comparison, Oosthuizen over-performed yesterday by finishing the day in 36th place - he has made the cut just once in four previous U.S. Opens - and with a h2h record of 7-0-0 in Haas' favour in 2014 (strokeplay events), the American should be the clear favourite in this matchup.

Ryan Moore to beat Matt Every -125 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Only two players hit fewer fairways than Every yesterday and, as a result, he struggled around this course. As a player with poor driving stats (167th in Total Driving on the PGA Tour; Moore is 45th), he should struggle on this course. Moore finished rd1 alongside him in 122nd place, but I'm much more confident that he will improve his position in rd2: in the last 5 years, he has finished rd1 outside the top-100 on 12 occasions on the PGA Tour - he has averaged 70.36 in rd2 from this position and improved his leaderboard position on 10 of 12 occasions; for Every, he has averaged 74.13 in rd2 from this positon and improved his leaderboard position in just 3 of 10 occasions.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Baddeley tb Henley -120 (W); Donald tb Dufner -120 (W)] 

Round 3 play (4pts):

Danny Willett to beat J.B. Holmes +155 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  LOST by 6
I'll take a punt on Willett at these odds. Both players are in 20th place and 11 shots behind Kaymer and that might signal a change in strategy from Holmes who has been very conservative off the tee this week. If he reverts to attacks this course, a very high score could be the result, whereas Willett has a much better type of game for a U.S. Open - he ranks 9th on the European Tour in Total Driving (driving distance + driving accuracy stats; Holmes is 61st on the PGA Tour) and 14th in Greens in Regulation (Holmes is 173rd on the PGA Tour). The Englishman comes into the event in much better form (three top-25 finishes in his last four starts, whereas Holmes has finished mc-75th-mc in his last three starts) and he does have a top-15 finish already in a Major (2013 Open Championship). 

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Rickie Fowler -103 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 3
I think Fowler's luck will run out today. He shot 67 yesterday to jump 12 places to 2nd, but hit less than 50% of fairways and just 50% of greens in regulation ... he took just 24 putts. He has struggled to stay on the fairway for the last two rounds and ranks 59th (of 67) in driving accuracy so far this week. On this course, you need luck if you consistently miss the fairway and now five shots behind his playing partner, he will certainly not be cautious off the tee today. Will Kaymer come back to the field instead? I don't think so. He is 7-for-8 when the sole leader at the start of the final round and that birdie on the last hole yesterday puts him in a much better position today. Despite leading the U.S. Open and the fact that nine of the last eleven 3rd leaders of this event have failed to win, I'll back Kaymer in this matchup.

Kevin Na to beat Brandt Snedeker +103 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Bet365, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  TIED
Snedeker is another who ranks poorly in driving accuracy - 47th of 67 - whereas Na is 6th. Na ranks even higher in greens in regulation so far this week - 3rd - whereas Snedeker is 29th, so it is clearly good putting that has saved Snedeker this week and enabled him to be one shot ahead of Na in 6th place. Without a top-30 finish since March, I doubt that he will manage to stay ahead of Na who is in much better form, having finished 2nd in the Memorial Tournament last time out.

Brandt Snedeker to beat Rickie Fowler +100 @  Paddy Power  LOST by 1
Opposing Fowler again. This is only the third time in his last seven events that he has reached Sunday and his record in this position is not good - he is 0-for-14 when starting the final round of a PGA Tour inside the top-5, including twice as leader. I don't think that Snedeker will be a strong challenger today, but I expect Fowler to go backwards significantly.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Fitzpatrick tb Oosthuizen +163 (L); Haas tb Moore -108 (W)]