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5-4; -0.20pts (system plays: 3-2-1) Round 1 play (4pts): Rory Sabbatini to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -110 @ 5Dimes WON by 7
Opposing Olesen on the PGA Tour. In his three events Stateside this year, he has missed the cut twice and exited the World Matchplay in the first round. Last year, he made the cut in the PGA Championship, but missed three cuts in a row prior to that. With that recent form on American courses and no course experience this week, he looks opposable. Sabbatini has a 9-3-0 h2h lead against him in all rounds and has missed just two previous events here since 2002, missing the cut only twice. He may not be a strong contender to win, but looks far more likely to make the cut than Olesen. Round 2 plays (4pts): Bill Haas to beat Pat Perez -140 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Haas' good form continues ... he has five top-25 finishes already in 2014 and he lies 5th after the opening round. He is still a shot behind Perez who holds a share of the lead, but this is the first time that he has every held the 18-hole lead in a PGA Tour event with the exception of the Bob Hope Classic. In such an unfamiliar position. he looks opposable with a dependable matchup player. Russell Knox to beat Matt Every -120 @ Paddy Power LOST by 2
Every is another who holds the 1st round leader. This will be the third time that he has been in this position ... in the two previous occasions, he shot 72-74 in rd2 from this position. With a course history of missing the cut in three previous visits, he looks very opposable, whereas Knox is just two shots back and is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Honda Classic, his 3rd top-15 finish of the year. Bill Haas to beat Webb Simpson -120 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
Back to Haas for the final play. Simpson has a good record on this course, but his form has been rather patchy this year and that was the case yesterday. He was poor off the tee, around the green and on it and finishes the day in 45th place. Since the Tour left Hawaii, Hass has finished ahead of Simpon in three of four strokeplay event and shot the lower rd2 score every time ... he should be the favourite to do so again today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Choi tb Stallings -125 (W); Senden tb Pettersson -120 (L)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Matt Every to beat Matteo Manassero +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally] LOST by 1
Every impressed yesterday and has now moved up to 3rd place. He may not have a great record on this course, but playing in the State where he was born, went to university and now lives is clearly an advantage. With three top-15 finishes already this year, he looks like he could stay near the top of the leaderboard whereas it should be more difficult for Manassero who has hit far fewer greens in regulation this week. Charley Hoffman to beat Ken Duke -110 @ Stan James [available generally] WON by 12
Hoffman also has three top-15 finishes so far this year - Duke has none - and Hoffman holds a 16-9 h2h lead against his opponent since last season. As such, it is clear who warrants favouritism in this matchup. Matt Every to beat Carl Pettersson -125 @ Stan James LOST by 1
Backing Every again. This time against a player who missed his first four cuts of the season and then recorded his first top-40 finish of the season last week in Puerto Rico. On this course, he was a winner back in 2005, but in the last three years he has finished 67th-mc-mc. Given that he also ranked 81st in greens in regulation over the first two rounds, he looks very opposable over the weekend. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Haas tb Streelman -125 (L); Every tb Guthrie -118 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): David Lingmerth to beat Sang-Moon Bae +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally] VOID (posted after Lingmerth teed off ... forgot about early DST in US) Charles Howell to beat Brandt Snedeker +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 6 Luke Donald to beat Justin Rose +100 @ 5Dimes, Stan James and The Greek [available generally] WON by 4 [unofficial rd4 system plays: Donald tb Langley -163 (T); MacKenzie tb McNeill -125 (W)] |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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