18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

6-3; +6.16pts  (system plays: 1-3-0) 

Round 1 play (4pts):

Kevin Streelman to beat Peter Hanson +115 @ 5Dimes  WON by 8
Two players players who are usually good to side with in matchups rather than outrights, but it Streelman who is in the better form - last week Hanson secured his first top-30 finish in a strokeplay event since January, whereas Streelman has missed just one cut in the last 10 months. He may not have been in final round contention since finishing 3rd in the Tournament of Champions, he does tend to start well - he has been inside the top-15 in seven of his last 16 starts. That was also the case last year when making his debut on this course - he finished 6th - so that gives him a sizeable advantage over Hanson who making his debut on this course.

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Martin Flores to beat Angel Cabrera -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 1
Cabrera is certainly a surprise leader after rd1. He finished 2nd in the Abierto del Centro on the Latinoamerica Tour two weeks ago, but it has been nine months since he has finished in the top-40 on either the PGA or the European Tour. This is only the 2nd time in the last five years that he has held the rd1 lead on either of those Tour and on the previous occasion (2012 Houston Open), he finished 21st. I really don't expect him to stay on the leaderboard, particularly as he ranked outside the top-50 in greens in reguation yesterday and Flores, with four top-20 finishes in his last six starts, seems a solid enough opponent.

Shawn Stefani to beat Scott Langley -130 @ 5Dimes  WON by 3
It has been a good comeback from Stefani who had back and neck troubles last year and started this season on a Minor Medical Extension. His 5th place finish in the Houston Open last month moved him up to Major Medical Extension status and so he will have a lot more playing opportunities for the rest of this season. He followed that top-5 position with cuts made in both of the last two weeks and is currently 7th after rd1 this week. He is playing well, ranking inside the top-15 yesterday for driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling, so I fully expect him to maintain his current momentum. Langley has missed three of his last four cuts and failed to make the cut on his debut last year, so it should be harder task for him.

Phil Mickelson to beat Ryan Moore -150 @ ToteSport  LOST by 4
Mickelson has a great record on this course, never finishing below 35th and securing top-5 finishes in five of his ten previous visits, so it is no surprise that we see a return to form (and motivation?) this week. With Moore in indifferent form recently and particularly so in rd2 - he averages 69.50 in rd1 in 2014, but 73.50 in rd2 - he looks to be a player worth opposing today even with the usually unpredictable Mickelson.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Mickelson tb Simpson -150 (L); Furyk tb Brown -160 (W)] 

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Stewart Cink to beat Angel Cabrera +100 @ Paddy Power  WON by 1
Cabrera recovered well from a slow start yesterday to regain a share of the lead, but he has only held the 36-hole lead on one previous occasion in the last five years and that was in the 2012 Open de Argentina on the Latinoamerica Tour. So it very easy to oppose him at plus-odds with Cink who has four top-15 finishes in his last six visits here and leads the field in greens in regulation so far this week.

Martin Flores to beat Angel Cabrera +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Bet365, Stan James, ToteSport and BetFred]  WON by 6
Also opposing Cabrera in a repeat of the rd3 matchup with better odds than yesterday. Flores has been in good form with four top-20 finishes in his last six starts and has finished ahead of Cabrera in five of six common events this season. With all the focus on Cabrera today, I don't see Flores as the underdog.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Scott Brown to beat Sang-Moon Bae +100 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 1
I don't see Brown as the underdog in this matchup. Both are currently level in this tournament, but Brown was 5th last time out at Hilton Head whereas Bae had missed three of his last four cuts prior to this event. When a player ranks 175th in greens in regulation on Tour, it is really difficult tomake the jump from making the cut to being in contention and, once again, Bae is not.

Phil Mickelson to beat Kevin Kisner -201 @ 5Dimes [available generally]  LOST by 3
Backed Mickelson in his one poor round of the week, but I'm confident of avoiding a repeat today. It has been over five years and 18 events since Mickelson started rd4 in the top-3 and finished the day outside it. For Kisner, this is only the second time that he has been inside the top-5 after 54 holes on the PGA Tour: on the previous occasion (2012 St Jude Classic) he dropped from 4th to 13th when he was paired with Dustin Johnson and Robert Allenby. Being paired with Phil Mickelson will be an even more-daunting affair and I expect him to fall outside the top-10 again.

Kevin Na to beat Brendon De Jonge -110 @ Stan James [available generally]  LOST by 4
Opposing De Jonge for whom fatigue could easily be a factor after opening with a 80 to be in last place and then shooting 62-68 in the next two rounds. He did a similar thing in the 2012 Greenbrier Classic when 137th after day 1, he shot 64-68 over the next two days before falling 15 places in rd4 with a 71. I'd much rather back the more consistent Na who has top-15 finishes in three of his last four starts and is on course to record his third top-15 finish in his last four visits to Quail Hollow.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Kaymer tb Thompson M -133 (L); Kaymer tb Byrd -115 (L)]