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8-3; +16.36pts (system plays: 5-1-0) Round 1 plays (4pts): Brendon De Jonge to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power LOST by 6
De Jonge is a good player to side with in matchups - he has made the cut in his last 12 events in the U.S. and 11 of those 12 have been top-50 finishes; for Casey the respective figures are 8 of 12 cuts made and only 6 top-50 finishes. Given that De Jonge has finished ahead of Casey in each of the last three years at Sedgefield, he looks good value at evens. Stuart Appleby to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Paddy Power WON by 2
A similar story with Appleby having the much better record on this course and finishing ahead of Baddeley in each of their last three events and holding a 22-8-0 h2h record against his compatriot over their last 30 common events. Nick Watney to beat Brooks Koepka -120 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Watney has showed enough form recently to be backed in this format - his last three rd1 scores have been 66, 63 and 69. He finished 12th in the Canadian Open, 8th in the Barracuda Championship having led for the first two rounds and 33rd in the PGA Championship, Against Koepka who has only one top-50 finish in the last two months, he warrants favouritism. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Appleby tb Stallings -105 (W); Hicks tb Koepka -101 (L)] Round 2 plays (4pts): William McGirt to beat Ricky Barnes -122 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 1
McGirt may be 2nd after rd1, but he is a player who has consistently continued a strong rd1 into rd2. He has started rd2 in the top-5 (and not leading) eight times in the last three years on the PGA Tour, has broken 70 in six of eight occasions and shot a sub-par round in rd2 on every occasion. He may falter over the weekend, but he is a very strong momentum player before it. And given that he has finished ahead of Barnes in five of their last six common events, he has the form as well to start the weekend well ahead of his opponent. Scott Langley to beat Aaron Baddeley -123 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib] WON by 9
Despite playing in the easier conditions - yesterday's morning groups averaged 0.68 shots better than the afternoon groups - Baddeley still finished rd1 outside the cut line and now looks very likely to miss his fourth cut in a row. No such worries for Langley who finished rd1 in 4th place and has the form to maintain a high leaderboard position for at least one more round. David Toms to beat Jhonattan Vegas -128 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 4
Vegas is another who has missed lots of cut recently - four in his last five events and he also missed the cut in his previous appearance at Sedgefield (2012). That contrasts sharply with Toms who has three top-20 finishes in the last four years here, including a runners-up finish in 2010, and who leads Vegas 6-2-0 h2h over the last five months. Toms clearly warrants favouritism in this matchup. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Haas tb Clark -110 (W); Snedeker tb Simpson -111 (W)] Round 3 plays (4pts): Brandt Snedeker to beat Andrew Loupe -188 @ Stan James and BetVictor [available generally] WON by 4
Short odds, but worth opposing Loupe who is currently 16th but hasn't recorded a top-25 finish since March. Snedeker, for his part, has finished 12th and 13th in the last two weeks and is a former winner here. Bill Haas to beat Scott Piercy -150 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 3
Short odds again, but another mismatch - Haas has finished behind Piercy just once in the last 11 months. With Haas in the much better form and with top-20 finishes in each of the last two years here, the short odds are justified. Webb Simpson to beat Brad Fritsch -163 @ Stan James [available generally] LOST by 1
Backing another former winner at Sedgefield in this matchup - Simpson won here in 2011, but has also finished 8th, 22nd and 11th in the last four years and looks set to continue that fine record on this course: he is currently 16th and just three shots off the pace. Fritsch is one shot ahead of him 7th place, but Simpson is 9-0-1 h2h against him in their last ten common events and the last time that Fritsch started the weekend inside the top-10 was back in March 2013. He is another worth opposing even at short odds. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Watney tb Stuard -150 (W); Haas tb Casey -120 (W)] Round 4 plays (4pts): David Toms to beat Paul Casey -110 @ Stan James WON by 1
Opposing Casey who started the week on the 'bubble' - he is 125th in the FedEx Cup Points List and the top-125 progress to next week. He did start the week well with 65 to finish day 1 in 4th place, but has now dropped to 18th and he is projected to rise only five places if the leaderboard stays the same. That means extra pressue on him today and if he starts slowly, that will increase substantially. Toms is much safer on the FedExCup Points List and has played well this week, leading the field in driving accuracy and 15th in greens in regulation, so appears more likely to shoot a sub-70 score today. Jeff Overton to beat Tommy Gainey -107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 6
The FedEx Cup Points List is not a factor in this matchup - Overton is 89th and should be safe for at least two events in the Playoffs while Gainey is 151st and set for the Web.com Tour Finals. But the Points List does show the difference in form and class between these two players, as do the World Rankings where Overton is over 200 places higher than his opponent. As such, it is surprising that Overton is not a shorter-priced favourite, particularly as Gainey has nothing to play for with a forced absence from Tour golf next week. |
