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3-1; +4.14pts (system plays: 1-1-0) Round 1 plays (2pts): Brendan Steele to beat Daniel Berger -116 @ Bet365 WON by 3
All purple patches of form come to an end and it did last week for Berger when he missed the cut after four consecutive top-25 finishes. Steele looks a good player to oppose him with this week - he has top-15 finishes in each of his last two starts and finished in the top-20 here last year; Berger is making his course debut. Hunter Mahan to beat Ernie Els -118 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
Els has shot 69 in each of his last two events, but it has not been enough to stop him missing the cut both time and extending his run of missed cuts to 4-for-4 on the PGA Tour this year. He won this event five years ago, but his game is nowhere near that level and he can be easily opposed with a player on a run of 13 events without a missed cut and that run also includes a win (The Barclays). Mahan has also made the cut in each of the last seven years here, so this really should be a one-sided match. J.B. Holmes to beat Harris English -110 @ 5Dimes LOST by 5
Holmes could easily have been a multiple-winner already this season - he lost a playoff for the Farmers Insurance Open last month and led for three rounds of the Cadillac Championship after his opening 62, so he is clearly a player in very good form. He is 8-for-8 in cuts made in this event, including a top-10 finish last year, which is something that English hasn't achieved in his previous three visits to Bay Hill. I can only see Holmes as a clear favourite in this matchup. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Poulter tb McDowell -102 (W); Holmes tb Koepka -120 (L)] No round 2 plays. Round 3 plays (2pts): Matt Jones to beat Sean O'Hair +117 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 1 Hideki Matsuyama to beat Rockie Fowler +100 @ 5Dimes TIED Round 4 play (4pts): Brendan Steele to beat Sean O'Hair +105 @ 5Dimes and The Greek [also available @ Pinnacle and Carib] TIED
I don't see why Steele has been price as a clear underdog in this matchup. O'Hair did reach a playoff last week, but Steele has a 9-1-0 h2h record against him in their last 10 common events and he has hit his drives further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation than O'Hair so far this week. There must be value at these odds. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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