18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

2-4; -6.62pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts unless stated):

Henrik Stenson to Rory McIlroy +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ SkyBet] [4pts]  LOST by 3
Opposing McIlroy who has looked some way below his best since returning to the Tour and was 24 shots behind the leaders after just 36 holes when this course was last used two years ago! Stenson finished well ahead of him on that occasion and, with 2nd place finishes in each of the two Playoff events so far, is in very good form and in good shape to lift his second FedEx Cup title in three years.

Jason Day to beat Rory McIlroy -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 7
While Stenson is 4th in the FedEx Cup standings, Day is 1st. Considering that he has won three of his last five events, his lead in the FedEx Cup race is fully justified. And given that he finished 4th on this course two years ago, it looks unlikely that he will be overtaken at the top of those standings this week.

Jim Furyk to beat Dustin Johnson +105 @ SkyBet [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]  LOST (Furyk wd)
Like McIlroy, Johnson struggled on this course two years ago, shooting over-par in every round and finishing 62nd (of 70). By contrast, Furyk shot 59 in rd2 en route to finishing 3rd. Given that the top-4 on the leaderboard that week contained four players who ranked in the top-6 for driving accuracy that week and only one player who ranked inside the top-30 for driving distance that week, this is clearly a course that suits Furyk far more than Johnson.

Keegan Bradley to beat Phil Mickleson -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, SkyBet, The Greek and Carib]  TIED
With Mickelson ranking 172nd in Driving Accuracy on the PGA Tour this season, he is clearly a player to oppose. Bradley is much better suited to this course - he finished six shots ahead of Mickelson in 2013 - and should finish ahead of him again in their final event of the 2014-15 season (both need top-3 finishes to progress and that looks extemely unlikely for both of them).

Brandt Snedeker to beat Hunter Mahan -111 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 3
Snedeker needs only a top-65 place to progress to the Tour Championship, whereas Mahan needs a top-3 finish. That evidences the difference in form between these two. Another is that Snedeker leads Mahan 11-4-1 h2h in 2015 (and 10-4-2 h2h in rd1 alone). Both finished in the top-10 on this course two years ago, but only Snedeker is showing the form this year to repeat that feat.

No round 2 plays.

No round 3 plays.

Round 4 plays (4pts):

Jason Day to beat Rory McIlroy -102 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  WON by 1
With a six-shot lead, Day is not the type of player to let the pressure get to him today - he has won three of his last five events - and will fully warrant his World #1 ranking with a win today. McIlroy will be forced to be aggressive and with finishes of 17th and 29th in his two events since his return from injury, he is still not at the level of his game in which it will lead to good results. Day was leading at the start of the final round in the previous playoff event and then shot 62. There is even less pressure on him this time around.

Kevin Na to beat J.B. Holmes -110 @ Paddy Power and The Greek [available generally]  LOST by 3
Two players a shot behind McIlroy in 5th place and, barring a very poor round by Na, are set to reach next week's Tour Championship. A very poor round looks far more likely with Holmes - he ranks 151st in Final Round Scoring Average on the PGA Tour and he hasn't secured a top-20 finish since the Houston Open in the first week of April. Na has 11 top-20 finishes in his last 17 starts and is clearly more comfortable in this section of the leaderboard.