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3-1; +7.26pts (system plays: 2-0-0) No round 1 plays. Round 2 plays (4pts): Hunter Mahan to beat Scott Piercy -140 @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and The Greek [also available @ Carib] WON (Piercy wd)
With missed cuts in three of his last four starts and outside the top-100 after his first round, Piercy appears to have neither the form nor the confidence to turn it around today. Mahan sits 87 places above Piercy and looks set to continue his far better run of form. Tony Finau to beat Adam Hadwin -127 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] WON by 3
Inside the top-10 after rd1 and with top-20 finishes in each of the last two weeks, Finau is another whose confidence and form should be far greater than his opponent's. Hadwin played well last week, but confidence should still be fragile as he had missed his four previous cuts and he is already two shots behind Finau after Thursday's play. Dustin Johnson to beat Jimmy Walker -116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] LOST by 2
Now to two players inside the top-10 after rd1, but I'm backing Johnson to stay there and Walker not. Since Walker won the Texas Open in March, his best finish has been 38th (apart from a first-stage round-robin exit in the Cadillac Matchplay) and despite nine previous attempts, he has yet to finish in the top-20 in this event. Johnson has three top-10 finishes in his last four visits and that win for Walker in the Texas Open was the only time since the Northern Trust Open that he has finished ahead of Johnson in any event (Johnson was 6th that week). [unofficial rd2 system plays: Senden tb Laird -120 (W); Johnson Z tb Palmer +110 (W)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (4pts): Scott Brown to beat Cameron Smith -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 3
Two players in very different form - Smith has played just two events in the last ten weeks as he is not a member of the PGA Tour, whereas Brown is inside the top-90 on the FedEx Rankings and has played in seven events over the last ten weeks, making the cut every time, In fact that it is now eight cuts in a row with this week's performance. He has earned a spot at the weekend - he ranks 7th in greens in regulation so far this week - and should finish ahead of Smith who has struggled to make the most of his invite into this event. |
NOTES
* UPDATE: 18th September 2012 *
Following the dramatic reversal in the performance of my
18-hole tips over the last two months, there will be a change in my posting
policy:
There will now be posted up to a maximum of five plays per round,
but only for the PGA, European, Champions, LPGA and Nationwide Tours.
This does include co-sanctioned events by these Tours.
As before, these plays will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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