18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-5; -7.55pts 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Ollie Schniederjans to beat Scott Pinckney -105 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
No particular reason to oppose Pinckney other than this is also the first time that he has played in the Canadian Open as he is a Tour rookie so he has no course experience advantage over his opponent. But for Schniederjans, this is his first Tour event as a professional and given his performance in finishing 12th at St Andrews last week and his general performances on Tour previously, there is good reason to expect a strong opening from the former World #1 Amateur.

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Austin Cook to beat Pat Perez -135 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 1
Cook has made the most of his opportunities. He has Monday-qualified for four of his previous five PGA Tour starts and achieved finishes of 13th-11th-mc-22nd-6th. That 6th place finish at the Barbasol Championship put him straight into this event and he is already 17th after rd1. At this pace, he won't even need to go to the Web.com Tour Finals as he will have reached the top-125 on the FedEx Cup List via these opportunities siezed.

Camilo Villegas to beat Adam Svensson -120 @ 5Dimes  WON by 4
In two previous attempts, Svensson has made the cut in his national Open so this represents his best opportunity from 33rd place on the leaderboard. However, his form has been indifferent on the Web.com Tour and he ranked outside the top-100 in greens in regulation yesterday. He looks one to oppose in this form.

Johnson Wagner to beat Sean O'Hair -130 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 2
No such form worries with Wagner. He has finished 5th and 10th in the last two weeks and warrants his top-10 position after rd1 - he was 3rd in greens in regulation in yesterday. O'Hair, on the other hand, is five shots off the cut line after hitting only six greens in regulation yesterday. He may have won this event in 2011 at Shaughnessy GC, but he looks set to miss his fourth cut in five starts.

Scott Piercy to beat Brian Harman -138 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 5
Harman played some flawless golf yesterday - he ranked 1st in driving distance, 1st in dirving accuracy and 3rd in greens in regulation, while finishing the day in 2nd place. But he record from such a lofty position on the leaderboard is not good - the last time that he opened with a 65 was the 2014 McGladrey Classic and he then dropped down the leaderboard in every subsequent round to finish 41st. He looks a player to oppose today, particularly with somone who won this event in 2012 and won last week on the PGA Tour.

Brooks Koepka to beat Scott Piercy -126 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  WON by 4
But I will still oppose Piercy with Koepka. Piercy should be able to take advantage of Harman's expected troubles today, but it is still difficult to follow up a Tour win the following week. Koepka, on the other hand, is winless over the past month, but he has been in extremely good form and that carried over to yesterday when he ranked 2nd in driving distance, 12th in driving accuracy and 1st in greens in regulation. He didn't score as well as Harman, but he played as well as him and he is expected to continue that form given his performances over the last month.

No round 3 plays. 

Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):

Zac Blair to beat Ben Crane +100 @ Paddy Power [also availeble @ Boyle Sports]  LOST by 4
Two players who are not in great form, but Blair still dominates this matchup. He leads Crane 9-4-0 h2h in 2015 and whereas he should be safe in terms of retaining his Tour Card - he was 94th in the FedEx Cup List at the start of the week and projected to rise to 86th - Crane has had a much more disappointing season - he ranked 181st in the FedEx Cup List at the start of the week and projected to rise only four places to 177th. Admittedly, he doesn't have to worry about his Tour Card for next season as he won the 2014 John Deere Classic, but he shouldn't be the favourite in this matchup in this form.

Jeff Overton to beat Jonas Blixt +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]  LOST by 1
A similar story in this matchup. Overton leads Blixt 7-4-3 h2h in 2014 and is 111th in the FedEx Cup List so is on course to make the Playoffs and retain his Tour Card for next season. Blixt is 149th and, despite being in 16th place, is projected to rise to only 141st, so is on course to only make the Web.com Tour Finals. Given that this is only the third cut that he has made in his last ten PGA Tour events, he doesn't make the form to cope with the added pressure that faces players in this FedEx Cup position on Sundays. He shouldn't be the favourite in this matchup.

Chad Collins to beat Jhonattan Vegas -110 @ Paddy Power [availeble generally] [2pts]  WON by 1
And the same story here. Collins leads Vegas 9-5-0 h2h in 2015 and is inside the top-125 on the FedEx Cup List - he is 101st - whereas Vegas is 142nd and projected to be 134th. Given that Vegas has made 16 of 23 cuts this season, but secured only one top-30 finish, it is clear why he is struggling to retain his Tour Card - he ranks 179th in Final Round Scoring Average. Collins, who ranks 34th in that category, should be the clear favourite in this matchup.