18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

2-3; -2.64pts  (system plays: 0-1-0) 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Charley Hoffman to beat Robert Streb -115 @ 5Dimes  LOST by 3
A winner last time out and with two previous appearances on this course, I'd give Hoffman the edge over Streb who is making his course debut this week. Only one player has won on their course debut in the last 10 years, so experience here does appear to matter.

Hunter Mahan to beat Billy Horschel -105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ SkyBet and Bet365]  WON by 1
Ignoring the two unofficial PGA Tour events at the end of last season, Horschel's form was rather indifferent after the Tour Championship - he finished 2014 with finishes of mc-37th-73rd - and that shows the nature of his play, which makes him a player to side with in outrights and oppose in matchups. Mahan is much more consistent and has a top-5 finish on this course already.

Chris Kirk to beat Jimmy Walker -111 @ Bet365  LOST by 1
Walker started last season in the better form, but Kirk finished it. Even in the unofficial PGA Tour events at the end of last year, Walker finished well down the field. Kirk has played well on this course in his two previous visits and was the first round leader last year; Walker was ahead of only two players after rd1 last year. It is another small play on a player in better form and with more course experience.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Villegas tb Hadley -114 (L)] 

No round 2 plays.

Round 3 play (2pts):

Kevin Streelman to beat Billy Horschel +100 @ Bet365  WON by 3
Two players back in 24th place and seven shots off the pace, but this is a good opportunity to oppose Horschel again. The last five times that he has started rd3 outside the top-20, he has shot 72-75-73-72-79 in rd3 and finished lower down the leaderboard and further off the pace every time; for Streelman, his last five rd3 scores in this position have been 69-65-76-63-71 which shows that he is much more capable of getting back into contention from this position. That period includes a 2nd place finish in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open when he was 30th and six off the pace after 36 holes, plus he has won twice from this position in the last two years: the 2013 Tampa Bay Championship when he was 31st and seven off the pace after 36 holes and the 2014 Travelers Championship when 39th and eight off the pace after 36 holes. Horschel is much more likely get back into contention from this position: in 90 previous times that he has been outside the top-20 after 36 holes, his best finish is 7th (2011 Frys.com Open).

Round 4 play (2pts):

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Jimmy Walker -106 @ Pinnacle [available generally]  LOST by 1
By the stats, Walker is 1-for-1 when leading after rd3 on the PGA Tour, but the nature of that win was far from convincing that he will play well under pressure today. He started the final round of the 2014 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am with a six-shot lead ... that lead was still five shots at the turn, but hit a poor chip on the 12th, three-putted on both the 13th and 17th and with two putts to win from 25 feet on the last hole, he ran his first putt five feet past the hole. By the stats, Matsuyama is 0-for-1 from this position - he shot 71 to drop from 1st to 10th in the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational - but he is 4-for-4 on the Japan Tour since June 2013 so he does have experience of closing out a win. With Matsuyama leading Walker in both greens in regulation and 'strokes gained - tee to green', his game appears to be in better shape and that will be important in today's pressure conditions.